***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 38.9 45.6 59.3 135.6 76.5 69.5 17.8 23.7 32.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 37.7 45.6 54.7 141.3 79.6 71.2 16.8 26.4 37.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 48.6 54.0 55.8 129.7 72.2 67.1 24.1 33.5 51.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 51.3 58.3 61.5 123.0 68.6 64.3 33.3 45.8 55.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 54.8 53.1 60.0 121.5 69.2 64.2 30.5 43.1 50.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 44.6 44.3 57.7 123.3 71.5 64.9 28.6 34.8 40.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 36.4 42.6 54.6 143.9 80.7 72.3 18.7 24.8 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 67.6 74.8 64.9 123.2 72.0 64.0 41.0 63.5 73.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 44.9 36.5 60.2 120.8 69.3 64.0 25.5 29.6 35.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 42.2 46.0 62.1 118.0 67.7 61.9 33.5 36.7 45.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 40.1 46.5 58.4 120.4 69.6 63.0 23.9 35.6 43.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 50.6 55.3 59.2 126.0 73.8 65.4 20.5 35.0 46.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 54.6 56.1 62.4 124.8 72.7 66.2 27.3 37.3 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 61.9 66.0 65.7 122.0 70.6 64.4 36.3 50.8 64.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 35.4 42.6 55.2 118.0 65.6 59.9 17.9 30.3 43.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 48.3 41.8 59.9 124.9 72.7 66.0 24.6 29.8 35.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 35.6 41.1 55.1 146.9 82.0 72.7 18.1 27.4 36.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 50.4 48.7 66.0 120.9 71.2 63.8 25.4 36.7 47.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 42.4 49.2 54.6 136.8 77.6 69.5 21.9 28.6 41.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 53.8 61.0 87.2 128.1 76.7 66.7 26.7 38.3 52.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 44.6 47.1 59.5 125.9 72.2 66.3 26.2 33.6 43.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 37.3 46.6 57.1 143.2 80.4 71.3 22.5 26.9 35.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 42.1 45.4 55.5 130.6 74.5 67.3 18.9 32.6 42.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 54.3 54.6 61.0 121.5 70.3 64.0 38.1 45.7 54.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 50.9 46.9 66.2 130.2 74.6 68.3 27.7 34.3 44.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 44.5 50.4 61.4 129.1 73.7 68.2 19.4 29.6 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 48.5 57.1 62.6 134.4 77.2 69.8 20.2 26.3 43.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 35.3 40.0 55.3 118.0 65.8 60.9 23.9 30.3 40.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 66.9 86.0 71.7 122.7 73.4 64.7 47.0 62.7 72.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 37.3 44.1 55.2 139.3 78.5 70.7 19.6 24.0 36.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------