***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 119.5 71.0 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 14.3 11.5 115.7 69.1 56.7 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.1 16.5 12.2 110.2 69.9 57.2 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.1 17.4 14.0 118.0 71.2 58.6 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.5 14.0 13.6 112.0 69.9 57.6 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.9 14.2 115.3 65.4 55.5 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.4 11.4 114.4 67.5 56.9 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.0 18.0 14.4 111.7 63.2 56.3 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.0 14.0 13.3 106.2 66.8 55.4 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.8 13.9 105.0 62.9 55.0 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.4 11.4 12.8 113.5 65.1 57.2 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.9 12.7 115.6 64.8 56.5 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.1 12.9 13.6 117.9 63.3 56.4 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.8 15.8 13.9 104.2 64.5 53.4 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.2 23.2 12.9 118.0 69.3 56.9 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.2 13.0 116.1 65.8 56.6 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.6 10.9 119.6 67.2 56.6 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.7 15.0 98.3 60.6 52.7 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 12.2 11.6 114.7 70.8 56.3 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.7 19.0 108.9 62.1 55.4 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.7 15.9 12.9 111.7 70.0 57.0 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.4 11.1 119.2 67.3 56.3 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.8 12.0 110.2 69.3 55.1 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.8 13.5 99.9 62.9 53.5 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 21.0 26.0 14.9 124.3 74.7 60.5 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.9 14.7 13.9 125.5 66.6 58.3 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 13.3 15.3 14.1 122.5 72.9 60.5 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.4 16.5 13.3 116.5 68.5 56.9 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.9 16.5 101.1 61.4 53.5 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 12.6 11.7 113.4 68.4 57.2 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------