***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 0.5 3.5 2.7 4.3 99.3 96.2 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 -0.2 3.1 2.3 4.1 99.3 95.3 -2.5 -1.2 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 2.6 5.4 2.4 4.0 99.4 96.0 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -2.6 0.4 -0.3 4.2 98.0 94.1 -6.8 -5.0 -3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 -0.5 2.5 0.1 4.4 98.6 94.8 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -1.5 0.3 -2.3 4.0 94.0 91.7 -3.2 -2.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 0.3 3.2 2.4 4.3 99.3 95.6 -2.1 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -6.0 -3.4 -1.8 4.1 93.8 91.1 -8.7 -8.1 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 0.1 3.2 0.5 4.2 98.5 94.1 -1.6 -0.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 0.1 2.9 -0.9 4.2 96.5 92.7 -1.4 -1.2 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 -0.4 2.6 -0.5 4.2 96.6 93.6 -1.9 -0.9 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 -1.9 1.2 -0.9 4.1 94.7 92.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 -0.5 1.8 -1.3 4.0 94.7 92.0 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 0.6 3.3 0.5 3.9 97.4 93.1 -1.4 -0.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 0.9 2.6 0.4 3.9 97.5 93.2 -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 0.2 3.2 -1.0 4.2 96.2 93.2 -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 0.5 2.7 2.2 4.1 98.1 93.9 -2.1 -1.1 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 -2.2 -0.1 -1.6 4.1 94.8 91.2 -3.4 -3.2 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 0.2 3.1 2.2 4.0 99.3 95.3 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 -4.8 -2.5 -3.5 3.8 92.2 89.0 -7.2 -5.9 -5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 0.1 3.4 1.8 4.1 99.1 95.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 -0.2 2.8 2.2 3.9 98.6 94.3 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 -0.7 2.6 1.9 3.8 99.2 95.1 -2.1 -1.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 -0.6 2.2 0.3 3.9 96.9 92.9 -1.8 -1.4 -0.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 -0.3 3.0 1.2 4.4 99.3 96.6 -2.0 -1.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 -0.1 1.6 -1.3 3.9 93.2 91.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 0.1 3.7 2.1 4.5 99.4 96.3 -2.1 -0.9 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 -1.0 1.3 -0.2 4.0 97.1 92.8 -3.2 -2.3 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 -2.1 0.6 -2.4 4.0 93.3 89.7 -5.3 -4.3 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 0.5 3.6 2.5 4.2 99.4 95.8 -2.0 -0.7 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------