***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.02.2013.-17.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 18.1 165.3 78.8 73.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 8.3 11.2 15.7 152.1 76.2 70.5 1.2 3.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 19.0 27.0 17.9 159.9 78.5 71.4 0.6 7.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 20.2 24.3 22.9 195.1 82.8 79.4 5.9 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 18.1 20.6 19.7 163.7 76.0 72.8 3.4 11.2 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.3 10.1 15.2 131.5 68.9 65.8 4.5 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 6.2 7.8 15.5 152.6 75.6 71.3 0.6 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 26.5 32.3 23.0 181.8 81.5 76.1 12.4 21.6 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 14.8 16.7 19.1 161.4 77.2 71.5 1.5 9.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 17.5 21.6 20.7 161.9 77.9 71.4 4.9 11.5 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.0 17.1 18.7 164.8 76.6 72.4 1.8 11.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 21.6 26.0 20.0 176.7 79.6 75.6 4.6 13.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 21.0 24.9 17.8 149.6 74.4 70.3 4.4 10.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 17.9 20.6 20.6 154.3 75.0 70.0 3.7 13.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 14.5 22.4 26.0 233.9 87.8 84.5 1.5 8.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 14.5 17.9 18.5 163.3 77.5 73.2 1.7 7.7 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.7 14.7 151.7 75.8 71.1 1.1 3.2 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 16.5 20.9 23.3 164.5 76.9 71.6 4.2 8.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.3 17.3 16.5 153.0 77.2 70.2 1.8 5.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 17.1 23.4 33.6 210.1 84.4 80.8 5.4 7.4 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 18.6 21.8 18.7 163.7 76.7 72.3 1.6 8.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 8.6 11.2 15.9 156.7 77.6 71.9 2.4 4.9 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 12.5 15.2 17.8 153.4 77.4 69.7 2.1 8.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 15.7 19.2 20.5 157.2 75.9 69.6 5.4 9.7 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 22.2 30.0 20.0 158.1 77.5 71.8 1.1 6.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 17.4 23.5 20.7 175.4 79.4 76.0 2.7 6.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.9 23.3 18.5 153.9 77.1 70.9 0.6 5.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 16.7 26.8 22.5 205.5 84.0 80.5 1.6 7.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 29.0 36.4 26.6 175.3 79.9 74.7 10.1 18.3 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 8.9 12.4 16.4 154.3 77.1 70.9 1.6 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------