***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.2 -2.2 24.6 25.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.0 6.9 7.1 -2.0 28.0 28.7 7.2 9.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 7.3 6.9 7.4 -2.2 24.5 26.5 8.0 10.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 5.1 -2.6 20.7 22.9 0.8 1.5 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 6.7 6.9 5.8 -2.4 21.8 24.3 8.2 10.1 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 6.1 6.4 4.0 -2.3 20.1 23.5 7.5 8.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 6.6 6.5 7.1 -1.9 28.5 29.1 6.9 9.3 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -1.6 -1.6 4.6 -2.0 27.6 28.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 7.5 7.7 6.6 -2.1 26.9 28.1 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.1 5.5 -1.9 28.4 29.4 8.4 10.7 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 7.1 7.2 5.6 -2.4 21.2 24.7 8.8 10.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 7.0 6.6 5.2 -2.3 21.1 24.9 8.0 9.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 7.8 7.3 4.8 -2.5 16.6 22.2 8.7 10.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 7.6 7.9 6.8 -1.8 29.2 31.0 8.6 10.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 5.7 6.3 5.5 -2.6 22.8 23.2 7.0 8.7 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 7.7 7.3 5.1 -2.6 18.1 22.2 9.0 10.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 6.8 7.3 -1.4 36.7 35.1 6.7 9.1 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.9 7.8 5.0 -1.7 30.9 32.1 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 6.8 6.4 7.3 -2.0 26.8 28.2 6.9 9.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 3.8 2.9 -1.3 33.6 34.6 3.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.2 -2.1 25.7 27.3 8.5 10.5 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.7 7.3 7.5 -1.4 35.4 35.1 7.1 9.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 7.4 6.9 7.5 -2.0 26.7 28.5 7.9 10.6 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 8.2 7.6 6.5 -1.9 28.7 30.2 8.6 11.0 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 6.8 7.2 6.0 -2.0 25.6 27.3 7.5 9.1 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 7.7 7.5 4.6 -2.3 19.2 23.3 8.3 9.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 6.6 7.3 6.5 -2.0 25.6 26.9 7.8 9.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 5.9 6.1 5.3 -2.8 20.0 21.4 7.8 8.9 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.5 4.1 -1.5 32.3 34.0 3.6 5.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.6 7.1 -2.2 25.8 26.3 7.2 9.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------