***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 12.7 17.5 19.2 155.7 79.5 72.3 1.0 3.1 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 8.9 12.2 19.3 170.4 79.5 72.6 1.6 4.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.0 21.6 20.8 174.3 83.8 75.7 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 16.6 18.3 21.1 153.4 75.1 71.7 2.4 4.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 9.2 11.6 20.8 163.8 74.7 73.4 2.6 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.7 15.1 18.5 158.6 74.8 70.6 3.4 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 8.9 11.3 18.2 160.9 76.7 70.5 1.2 3.9 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 18.4 22.3 21.2 171.5 77.8 74.4 6.9 9.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.7 17.5 20.7 170.6 80.5 75.2 2.6 3.7 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 12.7 16.7 21.9 174.4 79.4 75.5 3.4 5.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 10.5 12.9 19.7 169.4 75.5 73.8 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 16.3 19.4 19.1 170.7 76.8 74.0 3.2 5.9 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.7 15.1 19.7 169.8 76.0 73.3 3.2 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 18.2 26.6 27.6 211.6 87.3 81.4 2.8 6.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 20.6 25.7 22.7 166.0 79.8 75.0 0.1 2.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.9 19.5 167.1 75.7 72.8 3.1 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.7 10.9 18.9 168.7 77.5 71.3 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 13.0 17.7 24.2 177.2 80.5 76.2 1.4 4.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 9.8 15.5 20.8 182.1 83.2 75.2 2.3 4.2 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 14.3 13.1 25.2 163.6 75.5 73.2 1.9 7.4 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 12.5 20.4 20.4 168.5 82.0 75.5 3.0 4.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 10.4 14.7 21.2 187.3 83.7 74.4 2.7 4.4 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 11.2 17.8 23.1 197.0 86.1 78.6 2.2 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 13.2 19.7 24.1 187.5 83.7 77.6 2.7 4.6 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.6 15.6 20.9 143.3 74.3 69.8 2.3 3.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 16.4 19.6 20.5 183.0 80.4 77.1 2.9 6.8 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.8 16.6 19.8 145.3 75.3 69.9 1.3 3.0 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 12.8 15.3 20.9 162.8 78.3 73.4 0.8 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 21.0 28.2 25.3 177.1 80.1 76.1 4.6 7.2 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 11.7 17.6 19.4 167.7 80.1 72.9 1.1 4.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------