***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 0.0 19.2 150.7 71.8 65.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.2 6.0 17.2 150.9 75.1 65.8 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 5.7 9.2 19.2 152.8 75.7 65.9 3.1 4.8 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 9.3 10.3 21.5 137.8 70.0 66.5 3.2 5.8 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 7.2 8.2 20.9 137.5 71.4 66.4 1.5 3.2 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.4 22.1 124.3 67.0 63.4 1.7 3.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.2 6.4 17.1 146.3 73.8 64.4 1.0 2.4 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 15.1 16.5 22.4 137.5 74.2 67.1 10.1 12.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 7.7 9.2 21.1 139.9 70.2 66.6 1.6 4.5 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 11.6 15.8 22.4 138.9 73.0 67.1 3.4 5.1 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 9.3 10.0 19.9 135.0 73.8 66.8 1.3 3.8 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.3 10.5 20.0 137.5 76.0 66.9 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 4.7 5.8 20.9 128.4 71.4 64.7 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 11.5 16.6 23.3 160.0 81.0 69.2 2.7 5.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 5.8 5.0 21.8 141.1 70.6 67.1 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 7.7 9.7 20.3 131.6 71.3 65.8 1.7 2.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.1 6.0 16.1 147.3 75.7 64.8 0.6 2.6 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 10.0 11.5 24.9 144.5 74.3 68.2 2.0 5.1 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 6.8 8.9 17.7 153.9 76.3 66.2 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 8.3 8.6 27.8 132.6 68.7 65.9 3.3 6.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 5.4 7.0 20.0 144.9 70.7 66.0 1.4 5.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 3.5 8.3 16.9 149.9 76.0 65.3 0.4 2.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 6.9 10.4 19.0 156.9 78.5 66.9 0.7 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 11.6 16.3 22.8 153.4 78.0 68.4 2.5 5.2 8.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 5.6 7.3 21.7 142.3 69.6 65.6 0.9 5.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 3.3 5.7 20.5 128.5 67.8 64.1 0.8 2.4 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 4.9 7.3 20.6 146.2 69.1 65.1 1.1 3.6 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 6.0 6.4 21.2 136.2 70.1 66.4 1.0 2.2 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 14.1 15.7 26.0 141.9 72.6 67.8 4.2 10.3 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.5 5.8 17.8 151.7 74.4 65.5 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------