***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.3 10.8 85.0 53.3 44.6 1.0 3.1 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.9 9.2 80.6 52.5 46.3 0.7 3.3 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.1 5.9 11.2 87.2 55.9 45.7 2.8 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 9.5 13.2 89.4 56.6 45.8 4.3 6.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.6 13.7 96.6 57.0 46.9 4.4 7.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.8 15.4 107.0 60.1 51.1 2.2 6.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.0 8.9 81.5 55.1 46.4 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.3 20.4 15.9 112.7 63.8 51.9 6.9 11.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.3 14.8 100.2 57.7 48.3 2.7 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.3 16.0 106.0 60.4 50.0 3.6 9.7 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.3 14.4 13.9 104.5 60.0 49.0 3.2 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.2 10.2 14.4 113.6 63.7 52.1 2.9 5.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.2 15.4 108.6 60.7 51.4 4.8 7.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.3 15.6 90.2 54.6 47.1 5.2 9.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.3 12.2 86.4 56.8 45.7 2.6 5.1 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.9 10.5 14.4 105.9 59.9 50.2 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.2 9.1 79.8 50.3 45.4 2.4 6.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.2 16.7 104.7 60.3 50.6 4.2 6.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.7 9.8 81.6 53.1 46.6 0.6 5.3 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 7.8 19.4 108.3 61.5 52.4 3.4 5.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.9 7.3 12.9 92.8 56.4 45.8 3.5 6.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.2 10.3 83.6 52.6 46.3 1.7 6.6 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.5 11.1 83.7 53.5 47.0 2.3 3.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.1 14.9 96.4 56.9 48.1 4.5 9.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.9 12.5 84.8 53.2 44.4 1.8 5.3 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.3 14.4 106.3 62.8 51.3 2.6 5.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.9 11.3 84.6 53.3 44.7 0.8 5.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.0 6.0 13.0 92.3 57.5 46.5 0.9 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.4 18.7 17.4 104.1 59.0 51.0 4.4 11.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.5 9.5 81.8 53.8 46.4 1.4 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------