***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 12.9 13.9 12.7 0.8 59.9 58.3 8.8 12.6 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 12.5 13.6 12.8 0.9 60.8 59.2 9.6 12.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 13.8 13.9 12.8 0.6 57.2 55.8 8.9 13.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 6.4 6.3 9.6 0.6 60.6 56.9 0.3 5.9 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.1 11.1 0.5 56.4 54.1 8.8 13.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.4 12.2 8.4 -0.2 47.4 47.3 7.2 12.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 12.4 13.5 12.6 0.9 60.3 58.9 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 1.6 0.8 8.9 0.0 50.7 49.2 -1.3 0.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 13.9 13.5 12.1 0.5 55.8 53.6 8.6 13.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 13.9 13.4 10.1 0.2 51.9 50.6 8.2 13.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 13.9 13.5 11.4 0.3 52.3 51.4 8.9 13.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.4 12.6 9.9 0.1 50.9 49.6 7.3 12.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.0 13.3 10.5 0.0 47.3 47.7 8.8 13.4 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 14.3 14.1 12.4 0.8 56.2 55.4 9.9 13.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 13.5 13.8 12.1 0.6 60.4 58.6 9.1 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.2 10.6 0.2 52.2 51.1 8.9 14.1 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 11.2 12.9 12.4 1.0 60.9 59.9 9.2 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.0 9.6 0.5 54.6 53.3 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 13.1 13.9 13.0 0.9 59.9 58.7 9.4 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.1 9.3 7.6 0.7 58.3 55.0 3.9 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 13.6 13.6 12.7 0.5 56.3 54.2 8.8 13.1 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 12.4 13.7 12.9 1.1 60.9 60.1 9.7 12.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 13.5 13.8 13.1 0.9 57.8 57.4 9.6 13.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 13.7 13.7 11.9 0.5 54.8 53.5 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 13.0 13.3 11.6 0.7 58.7 57.2 8.6 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.3 8.9 0.0 50.9 48.7 8.5 12.3 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 13.0 13.4 12.1 0.8 60.3 58.6 9.0 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 14.2 14.6 10.6 0.4 58.4 55.6 8.6 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 8.1 7.5 9.2 0.8 56.9 54.9 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 12.6 13.8 12.8 0.9 60.0 58.5 9.1 12.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------