***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 22.4 24.3 37.1 72.9 30.1 33.6 26.6 37.7 43.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 21.0 26.4 36.2 78.5 35.2 37.2 26.0 35.8 46.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 24.1 35.4 37.6 73.1 31.3 34.0 35.7 41.6 58.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 45.7 54.4 50.0 85.2 41.6 41.7 46.8 58.2 68.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 39.0 41.6 45.0 78.7 36.7 37.6 39.9 47.1 56.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 34.4 44.0 55.3 91.6 43.7 45.5 38.2 44.2 48.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 18.7 20.6 35.3 77.2 34.7 36.4 19.9 33.5 44.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 55.9 69.2 55.0 89.3 42.5 43.0 57.5 76.3 86.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 30.2 34.6 44.6 76.5 34.1 35.8 34.3 40.0 47.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 41.4 43.8 54.2 85.4 39.9 40.6 42.1 49.4 64.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 37.8 38.4 46.4 82.8 37.3 39.7 36.7 47.5 54.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 33.2 44.3 47.4 86.2 40.5 41.8 39.1 48.4 56.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 40.6 42.3 51.1 85.3 38.4 41.4 40.5 47.7 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 44.1 49.6 53.3 78.8 35.4 36.6 48.6 59.8 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 34.0 43.6 50.1 94.1 48.9 45.9 34.7 44.1 50.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 32.4 38.0 47.8 83.7 38.7 41.0 34.1 41.0 48.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 22.9 27.6 35.9 78.3 35.2 37.4 26.8 36.8 43.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 33.5 36.2 58.1 86.5 39.8 41.5 34.0 41.4 47.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 26.3 27.4 36.9 77.2 33.2 36.3 27.4 42.1 52.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 35.1 41.5 64.3 88.6 41.1 42.1 38.9 44.2 50.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 28.9 31.6 40.5 73.7 33.0 34.6 31.6 37.1 51.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 27.6 31.5 38.4 78.0 33.1 36.8 31.4 38.0 43.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 29.8 28.5 38.5 74.6 30.8 34.7 31.2 46.5 51.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 38.7 43.6 49.9 79.2 35.4 37.4 41.4 50.4 59.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 32.9 35.6 43.3 74.5 33.7 35.0 35.2 42.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 34.1 36.6 47.6 82.8 37.3 39.9 34.9 48.4 52.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 26.8 28.2 39.0 72.3 30.3 33.1 29.1 37.2 45.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 34.9 40.8 50.6 89.9 46.1 44.1 33.3 42.0 48.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 52.4 61.1 60.9 88.1 40.9 42.3 54.2 67.7 85.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 19.5 22.7 36.0 76.4 32.6 35.7 22.8 39.3 48.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------