***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 16.6 17.3 15.6 -0.3 44.7 45.7 16.2 17.4 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.8 15.3 -0.4 42.3 43.6 16.6 17.2 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 16.7 17.0 15.6 -0.5 42.2 43.6 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.9 12.8 -0.4 45.6 44.1 8.8 10.1 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 16.7 17.0 13.7 -0.7 40.1 41.1 16.8 17.7 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 15.5 15.8 11.8 -0.6 42.9 42.4 15.4 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 16.2 16.8 15.2 -0.4 42.4 43.3 16.4 17.1 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.3 12.0 -0.8 38.5 39.6 4.1 5.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 16.2 16.4 14.3 -0.6 41.9 41.4 16.1 17.2 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 16.1 16.6 12.9 -0.8 40.5 40.6 16.6 17.2 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 16.4 16.7 13.7 -0.8 38.4 39.7 16.4 17.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.9 13.0 -0.8 37.9 39.4 15.5 16.4 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 16.3 16.6 12.8 -0.9 37.7 39.3 16.6 17.4 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 16.5 16.9 14.1 -0.7 39.8 40.7 16.5 17.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.2 14.4 -0.2 48.3 47.1 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 16.7 17.0 13.2 -0.7 39.8 40.6 16.7 17.8 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.2 14.9 -0.5 40.6 42.3 16.1 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 15.9 16.1 12.3 -0.8 40.6 41.0 15.8 17.0 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.7 15.4 -0.5 41.9 43.3 16.3 17.0 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.2 9.9 -0.7 41.9 42.2 10.7 11.6 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 16.4 16.9 15.1 -0.6 42.0 42.3 16.4 17.2 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 16.4 16.8 15.0 -0.5 41.2 42.7 16.6 17.2 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 16.6 16.9 15.5 -0.5 40.8 42.4 16.6 17.2 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 16.3 16.7 14.1 -0.7 40.2 41.0 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.1 14.1 -0.4 44.0 44.3 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 15.9 16.3 12.1 -0.8 39.7 39.7 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 16.5 17.0 14.9 -0.3 44.1 45.4 16.4 17.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.3 13.5 -0.3 46.2 45.2 16.6 17.5 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.5 -0.8 40.2 40.6 10.8 11.6 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.8 15.4 -0.4 43.9 44.4 16.5 17.0 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------