***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 7.2 7.5 7.6 -1.2 23.6 32.5 8.3 8.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 6.4 5.9 6.8 -1.8 18.0 25.9 7.4 8.5 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 8.1 7.4 7.4 -1.5 18.8 28.2 9.2 10.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.0 2.4 4.7 -1.4 23.8 28.9 3.8 5.3 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 5.0 5.4 5.6 -1.4 21.8 28.8 5.8 7.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.4 4.4 2.9 -1.1 28.8 31.6 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 6.3 5.7 7.0 -1.5 20.7 29.2 7.2 8.7 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -1.3 -1.7 2.7 -1.5 18.0 24.6 -0.1 0.7 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 5.8 4.7 5.0 -2.0 12.2 18.1 6.4 7.6 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 6.0 5.5 3.4 -1.8 13.5 19.9 6.7 7.2 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 5.4 4.9 4.8 -1.6 17.3 23.3 6.1 6.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.1 -1.1 24.5 30.6 4.7 5.5 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 5.4 5.4 3.8 -1.4 22.4 24.7 5.8 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 6.1 4.8 4.7 -2.0 12.5 19.3 7.0 8.1 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.1 6.1 -1.1 26.6 31.3 7.6 8.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 6.8 6.5 4.4 -1.3 22.3 27.4 7.1 7.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 6.1 5.7 6.7 -1.7 17.6 26.6 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 3.9 3.3 3.0 -1.7 16.0 22.9 3.9 5.8 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 6.1 5.5 6.6 -1.9 15.7 23.0 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.4 -1.6 17.9 24.7 1.3 2.7 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 6.0 5.4 6.6 -1.6 16.5 24.6 6.7 7.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 5.5 4.8 6.7 -1.9 15.3 23.7 6.9 7.9 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 5.7 4.6 6.2 -2.2 13.0 18.6 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 5.1 4.3 4.8 -2.0 13.0 19.1 6.5 7.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 6.5 6.7 6.9 -1.2 24.3 33.1 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.8 6.1 3.7 -0.6 34.6 38.6 6.1 6.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 6.3 7.1 7.6 -0.9 28.9 37.0 7.1 8.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.9 4.9 5.1 -1.3 25.9 30.2 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 2.6 2.1 2.0 -1.9 14.7 20.1 3.9 4.9 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 6.4 5.9 7.1 -1.7 19.0 27.0 7.4 8.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------