***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 22.4 -0.4 44.1 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 22.5 25.1 22.8 0.1 50.7 50.9 22.8 24.9 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.7 22.6 -0.2 47.6 48.7 22.8 24.9 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 14.6 16.7 20.7 -0.4 41.5 47.0 15.5 16.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.2 24.2 20.8 -0.4 43.5 47.3 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.4 23.3 18.7 -0.2 46.7 47.7 21.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.0 24.1 22.6 0.0 49.6 50.2 22.8 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.8 13.1 19.2 -0.1 52.6 49.9 11.6 13.0 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.4 23.9 21.2 -0.3 48.6 48.1 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.4 24.2 20.0 -0.2 51.5 49.3 22.4 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.5 24.0 20.4 -0.3 45.1 48.1 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 19.9 23.0 20.0 -0.2 49.9 48.9 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 21.7 24.2 19.4 -0.2 46.8 47.9 23.3 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.6 25.0 21.1 -0.1 50.8 49.3 22.3 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.5 21.3 -0.1 48.5 48.9 23.7 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.2 24.5 20.0 -0.3 43.5 47.5 23.3 24.7 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.6 24.2 22.6 0.2 52.0 52.3 22.5 23.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 20.8 23.6 19.3 0.0 53.8 50.6 21.5 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.8 24.1 22.8 0.1 50.7 50.9 22.3 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 15.4 18.9 17.2 0.2 56.5 52.4 17.7 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.1 24.2 22.0 -0.4 47.7 47.5 22.3 24.4 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.3 25.3 22.5 0.2 52.7 52.1 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 21.9 24.5 22.6 0.0 48.2 50.1 22.6 24.8 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.2 24.2 21.0 -0.1 50.5 49.5 21.8 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.9 20.9 -0.5 43.7 46.4 22.4 24.5 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 20.9 23.7 19.3 0.0 51.2 49.6 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.9 21.6 -0.4 43.4 46.8 22.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.0 24.4 20.9 -0.3 44.0 47.6 22.3 24.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.4 18.8 18.4 0.1 54.3 51.4 17.0 18.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.4 22.8 -0.1 49.8 50.0 22.4 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------