***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 23.4 0.2 62.5 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.3 24.8 23.6 0.4 63.5 59.5 23.1 24.1 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.6 23.4 0.1 60.7 55.1 23.1 23.9 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.7 21.5 0.2 64.3 56.5 15.8 16.8 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.0 24.5 21.6 0.1 60.4 54.2 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.6 19.4 0.3 68.6 56.5 21.6 22.8 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 24.0 24.3 23.5 0.4 63.4 59.2 22.5 23.8 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.9 19.8 0.2 67.1 55.0 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.8 24.0 22.1 0.1 60.1 54.1 22.8 23.4 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.6 24.0 20.6 0.1 64.0 54.3 22.5 23.2 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.6 24.3 21.2 0.1 65.7 53.8 22.9 23.7 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 21.8 23.6 20.7 0.2 67.8 54.8 21.8 22.8 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 24.8 24.6 20.3 0.2 67.9 55.1 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.3 21.8 0.1 61.5 53.5 22.5 23.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 25.2 25.6 22.5 0.6 69.8 62.2 23.3 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 23.0 25.1 20.9 0.2 67.3 54.5 23.4 24.2 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 23.9 24.2 23.4 0.6 65.8 61.7 22.4 23.6 24.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.6 19.9 0.2 63.6 54.6 22.2 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 23.8 24.0 23.6 0.3 63.3 58.4 22.7 23.6 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 19.2 17.7 0.3 66.7 57.1 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.0 22.9 0.0 60.6 53.7 22.9 23.6 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.2 24.8 23.3 0.5 65.7 60.7 23.0 24.0 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.7 23.4 0.2 62.6 56.1 23.3 23.8 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.8 21.7 0.1 61.5 53.7 22.4 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.6 21.9 0.1 62.5 55.5 23.1 23.7 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 24.2 23.9 20.1 0.4 69.5 57.1 22.3 23.4 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.3 22.6 0.2 62.1 56.1 22.7 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.4 21.9 0.4 66.3 57.8 23.1 24.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 19.0 18.9 0.2 64.5 55.5 17.0 18.0 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.0 24.7 23.6 0.3 62.9 58.3 22.8 23.7 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------