***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 25.1 -1.0 40.6 40.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.4 25.5 25.5 -0.7 46.7 44.7 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.8 25.3 -0.9 42.3 42.6 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.3 17.3 23.4 -0.9 39.0 40.6 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 24.5 25.9 23.4 -0.9 39.2 41.5 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 23.1 24.0 21.1 -0.7 42.4 42.7 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.7 24.8 25.3 -0.8 43.8 43.5 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.4 21.7 -0.7 45.2 44.1 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.7 23.8 -0.8 40.3 42.4 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 24.1 24.9 22.5 -0.7 44.4 43.9 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.4 25.8 23.0 -0.8 41.7 42.5 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 23.5 24.3 22.5 -0.7 42.0 42.7 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.4 25.6 21.9 -0.8 40.3 41.7 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.2 25.2 23.6 -0.8 47.3 44.8 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.3 25.7 23.8 -0.8 40.2 41.9 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 24.9 26.4 22.5 -0.8 39.6 41.6 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 25.6 24.8 25.4 -0.5 46.7 46.8 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.2 21.7 -0.7 44.9 45.2 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.1 25.5 -0.7 47.8 44.7 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.9 19.5 -0.6 46.2 45.9 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.8 24.6 -0.9 40.6 41.2 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.1 25.4 25.4 -0.4 48.1 47.6 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.8 25.2 -0.7 48.1 44.5 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.2 23.5 -0.8 46.1 44.4 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 24.3 25.4 23.6 -1.0 38.2 39.7 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 24.2 25.2 21.8 -0.7 41.0 42.3 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.1 24.2 -1.0 38.4 39.8 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 25.2 25.8 23.6 -0.9 39.1 41.2 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 19.7 20.7 -0.6 45.6 45.7 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.4 25.5 -0.8 44.4 43.3 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------