***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 12.0 17.3 26.8 187.1 89.1 74.7 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 16.6 22.6 20.6 151.7 78.3 70.1 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 14.4 19.2 23.8 157.3 81.6 66.0 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 25.7 34.0 35.0 198.9 88.0 76.1 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 15.0 31.0 33.5 191.7 85.3 72.8 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 23.5 29.8 36.3 174.3 81.1 74.6 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 8.6 10.2 20.3 155.9 75.9 71.1 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 37.8 45.2 36.9 169.0 80.9 70.9 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 17.6 24.8 33.4 179.3 85.8 71.9 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 24.4 31.8 39.0 172.6 81.7 71.0 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 16.9 26.5 32.1 191.9 83.6 73.3 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 20.3 23.4 30.2 184.9 84.4 72.9 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 21.6 32.4 34.5 199.5 88.9 75.8 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 25.5 32.5 29.0 136.5 78.0 63.1 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 16.6 29.4 31.9 189.4 85.9 74.9 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 19.9 24.6 31.9 188.8 84.2 73.7 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 13.1 14.3 18.1 139.8 76.5 68.7 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 20.1 27.4 40.0 158.7 81.8 69.2 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 14.6 23.3 21.7 151.7 79.4 69.4 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 20.8 25.1 41.8 165.7 80.5 71.6 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 13.2 17.8 28.9 172.0 87.3 70.0 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.6 17.4 17.5 128.7 73.2 63.9 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.2 15.7 24.5 153.2 79.3 68.8 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 18.3 23.8 32.1 151.8 81.5 66.2 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 16.1 22.4 34.5 199.8 91.8 77.2 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 19.4 26.4 32.2 181.1 82.6 74.1 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 13.9 27.6 31.6 195.8 89.8 77.2 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 19.8 23.7 32.8 187.4 85.7 74.9 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 30.0 40.6 39.7 161.5 81.5 69.8 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 11.2 13.5 20.9 150.3 77.8 68.7 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------