***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 19.9 18.9 114.7 65.1 54.5 7.4 14.7 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.9 27.2 15.8 110.2 63.8 51.8 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.3 36.6 19.2 116.6 67.1 53.2 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.0 34.9 22.7 139.5 74.2 58.7 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.4 28.8 19.7 120.6 65.7 51.5 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.2 20.7 22.5 119.9 67.4 55.7 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.0 20.9 14.8 107.1 63.4 51.5 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.8 24.7 21.1 124.1 68.0 54.1 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.9 20.2 20.1 114.0 64.6 50.0 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.1 33.5 22.5 120.5 66.0 53.0 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.9 21.5 17.9 126.8 69.1 53.7 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.6 18.8 18.1 122.0 68.0 53.6 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.0 19.3 20.1 119.0 68.4 54.7 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.1 21.3 102.6 61.2 49.1 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 18.6 23.6 19.3 141.7 75.7 62.3 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.7 15.9 19.0 121.7 69.4 54.3 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.9 21.7 14.3 103.7 61.9 49.7 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.4 26.7 24.6 119.2 65.0 53.2 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.5 16.7 111.0 64.7 51.8 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 27.0 23.0 123.2 67.2 54.9 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.7 16.8 20.0 120.2 66.6 52.9 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 19.5 19.6 16.1 106.0 64.6 50.7 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 19.5 21.1 17.3 108.9 66.3 51.3 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.8 30.4 22.9 119.6 67.2 53.3 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 9.5 24.1 22.1 124.5 68.8 56.9 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.7 16.1 108.3 64.4 53.8 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 19.4 18.1 20.3 115.0 65.7 55.5 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 22.9 23.5 21.0 137.0 73.3 59.6 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.3 39.1 25.2 121.7 67.1 55.0 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.4 26.5 17.0 113.9 67.0 53.2 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------