***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.6 -1.1 29.3 32.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.7 15.0 -0.8 29.9 37.1 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.4 14.5 -1.1 27.9 32.0 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 8.9 9.1 12.5 -1.1 26.6 31.2 9.3 10.8 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.1 12.3 -1.1 27.4 31.7 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 9.9 10.5 10.5 -0.9 31.1 32.9 10.8 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 12.7 12.9 14.9 -0.8 29.5 36.6 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.7 5.1 10.7 -0.9 32.0 34.9 5.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.0 12.7 -1.1 27.0 31.4 12.3 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 12.1 12.5 11.4 -1.0 29.9 33.4 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 11.9 12.2 11.8 -1.0 29.5 33.2 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.4 -0.9 29.4 33.5 10.6 11.5 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 11.3 11.9 10.9 -0.9 27.0 31.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 12.7 12.9 12.9 -1.1 26.2 32.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 13.0 13.4 13.0 -1.1 25.7 31.0 13.7 14.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 12.2 12.6 11.5 -1.0 29.7 32.2 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.9 15.0 -0.5 37.2 41.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 10.6 11.1 10.8 -0.9 28.9 33.7 11.2 12.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.3 14.8 -0.9 29.0 36.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.2 9.0 -0.8 36.0 36.7 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.3 13.7 -1.1 26.7 31.0 12.4 13.5 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.9 -0.6 34.3 40.0 12.7 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 12.3 12.8 14.4 -1.0 27.7 33.9 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.6 12.6 -1.1 26.4 31.7 12.7 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 12.7 12.4 13.2 -1.0 30.1 32.3 12.8 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 10.7 11.3 11.1 -0.9 28.1 32.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.3 12.4 13.9 -1.0 30.4 32.8 12.6 13.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 11.2 11.0 12.6 -1.1 25.9 30.6 11.8 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.9 10.1 -0.9 32.1 35.0 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 13.0 12.8 14.9 -0.9 27.7 35.0 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------