***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 11.5 11.2 12.7 -1.4 22.9 27.0 11.6 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 11.0 10.9 12.3 -1.7 21.7 23.9 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 12.5 12.6 12.7 -1.4 24.8 26.7 13.5 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.4 7.8 10.4 -1.1 30.1 31.9 8.3 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.3 11.1 -1.1 26.8 30.3 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.5 9.5 8.7 -0.8 31.5 34.4 9.6 10.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 11.4 11.3 12.3 -1.6 21.4 24.3 12.0 13.4 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.3 8.4 -0.9 30.7 33.7 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.4 11.5 -0.9 29.8 33.3 11.5 12.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 11.4 11.6 9.5 -0.9 30.6 34.3 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 11.1 11.1 11.0 -0.8 31.5 34.8 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.1 9.4 -1.0 28.3 30.9 9.4 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.7 10.4 10.0 -1.0 28.3 31.9 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 12.0 11.8 11.1 -1.0 31.4 33.9 11.9 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 12.5 12.5 12.6 -0.9 29.1 33.9 12.8 13.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 11.3 11.0 10.4 -1.0 27.7 31.1 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 11.7 11.5 12.1 -1.6 23.5 25.1 12.3 13.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.3 8.9 -0.9 31.7 34.1 10.3 10.8 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 11.3 11.1 12.3 -1.7 23.1 24.7 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.0 5.9 6.9 -0.9 32.0 34.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 11.3 11.3 12.4 -1.1 28.0 30.7 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 10.8 11.0 12.3 -1.6 23.8 25.0 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 10.8 10.4 12.3 -1.6 24.8 26.5 11.3 12.8 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.6 11.3 11.1 -1.0 31.9 33.5 11.3 12.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 11.4 10.9 11.7 -1.4 23.2 27.7 11.2 12.6 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 10.1 10.0 8.6 -1.0 27.0 30.1 10.3 11.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 11.1 10.6 12.1 -1.5 22.1 27.0 11.4 12.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.5 10.5 11.2 -0.9 30.1 33.7 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.5 8.1 -0.9 33.5 34.8 8.4 9.4 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 11.3 11.1 12.5 -1.7 22.2 24.0 12.2 13.0 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------