***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.9 18.3 0.8 66.7 62.2 14.2 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.4 18.6 1.0 70.1 63.1 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.9 18.2 0.7 64.8 60.5 15.5 16.1 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.9 16.1 0.6 63.3 58.7 10.2 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.6 15.8 0.6 63.3 59.1 12.3 13.3 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.5 13.7 0.5 62.1 57.8 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.2 18.6 1.1 69.4 63.6 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.1 13.8 0.6 65.2 60.3 6.6 7.2 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 16.1 0.7 65.3 59.8 13.6 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 14.5 0.6 65.3 59.6 13.7 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.5 15.3 0.6 64.5 59.4 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.3 15.0 0.7 65.3 60.8 11.7 12.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.1 14.3 0.6 65.0 59.1 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.1 16.1 0.6 63.4 59.1 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.9 16.9 0.7 64.5 59.1 14.8 15.1 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.7 15.1 0.6 65.0 59.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.7 18.2 0.9 68.9 61.9 14.6 15.1 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.6 13.9 0.6 65.1 59.8 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.9 18.5 0.9 67.7 62.1 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 11.8 0.5 62.7 58.1 8.3 8.9 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.7 17.4 0.7 66.8 60.5 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.7 18.0 0.8 64.7 60.5 13.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.4 18.0 0.7 65.2 60.9 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.3 16.0 0.6 64.6 59.4 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.6 16.6 0.7 67.0 60.4 13.1 14.3 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.6 14.5 0.7 63.8 59.0 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.1 15.4 17.4 0.9 67.3 62.2 13.0 13.6 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.8 16.5 0.7 66.1 59.5 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.1 13.1 0.6 65.1 59.7 10.1 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.5 18.7 0.9 68.6 62.9 14.2 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------