***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.9 26.0 -0.5 47.3 45.4 25.2 25.9 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.0 25.8 26.0 -0.7 42.8 43.1 25.2 26.0 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 23.9 25.6 26.1 -0.6 45.1 44.6 24.9 25.6 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 17.3 18.7 23.0 -0.7 41.5 42.0 18.1 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 24.5 25.2 23.6 -1.0 34.6 39.1 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 23.2 23.7 20.9 -1.3 30.4 36.0 24.0 25.1 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 24.0 26.1 26.0 -0.5 46.4 44.8 24.7 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 13.1 13.1 21.5 -1.2 33.5 38.1 13.1 14.8 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 24.1 24.1 24.3 -1.0 36.6 39.9 24.0 25.6 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 24.0 24.8 22.4 -1.0 35.7 39.5 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 24.5 24.3 23.7 -1.3 31.6 37.2 24.5 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 24.0 23.9 22.7 -1.4 31.7 36.3 24.0 25.1 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 24.5 24.8 22.6 -1.7 28.5 32.9 24.8 25.8 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.1 24.1 -0.5 43.6 43.9 24.6 25.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 25.0 26.3 25.2 -1.0 36.1 38.7 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 25.2 25.4 23.0 -1.5 30.1 35.1 25.7 26.2 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.4 25.2 25.9 -0.4 47.4 45.4 24.8 25.4 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 23.5 24.2 21.7 -0.8 40.2 40.9 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 23.6 25.0 26.0 -0.7 43.8 43.8 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.0 19.3 -1.0 36.7 39.4 19.0 21.0 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.1 25.7 25.4 -0.7 42.2 42.8 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.8 25.7 -0.4 48.6 45.9 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.3 26.0 -0.6 44.7 44.6 24.7 25.6 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 23.6 25.0 24.0 -0.6 43.1 43.2 24.2 25.2 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 27.1 25.6 24.3 -0.7 43.8 42.4 25.3 26.5 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 24.3 24.7 21.9 -1.7 28.7 33.1 24.8 25.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.4 25.2 -0.5 46.9 44.5 24.7 25.4 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 25.2 26.1 23.8 -0.9 36.4 39.6 26.0 27.0 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 18.7 19.4 20.8 -0.9 39.9 40.7 19.0 20.3 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.3 26.1 -0.6 44.7 44.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------