***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 28.4 29.0 28.6 2.0 74.9 73.2 25.6 26.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 28.3 29.1 28.9 2.3 79.1 76.4 24.8 26.1 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.7 28.4 1.8 73.0 70.7 25.0 26.0 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 20.0 20.2 25.4 1.0 63.8 61.2 18.3 19.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 26.8 27.4 26.0 1.1 61.9 61.4 25.3 26.5 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 25.6 25.5 22.6 0.3 53.4 52.9 23.8 25.3 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 27.6 28.4 28.8 2.3 79.1 76.5 24.5 25.7 26.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.3 23.5 0.7 56.5 57.1 13.2 14.5 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 26.0 27.1 27.1 1.4 66.1 65.4 24.5 25.6 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 26.3 26.6 24.9 1.0 61.8 61.3 24.7 26.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 26.9 27.1 25.4 0.9 58.5 58.8 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 25.8 26.1 24.4 0.6 55.7 56.0 24.0 25.5 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 26.7 26.7 24.1 0.3 53.0 52.2 25.0 26.4 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 48 52 100 27.1 27.0 26.6 1.6 67.3 67.3 23.7 25.9 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 27.6 28.3 27.3 1.1 64.5 63.0 25.8 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 27.6 28.0 24.9 0.6 57.4 56.5 25.5 27.3 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 27.8 28.7 28.6 2.3 80.2 76.9 24.1 25.7 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 25.9 26.6 24.0 1.1 61.9 62.0 23.8 25.6 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 27.4 27.9 28.7 2.2 77.1 74.9 24.4 25.5 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 21.1 21.6 21.4 0.7 56.7 57.5 19.6 20.7 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 27.4 27.5 28.1 1.6 68.2 67.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 27.9 29.3 28.3 2.2 81.2 76.5 24.6 25.8 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 27.7 27.5 28.2 1.9 73.3 71.8 24.4 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 25.7 26.6 26.3 1.4 65.7 65.1 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 27.7 27.6 26.9 1.6 67.5 67.1 25.3 26.5 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 26.8 27.1 23.2 0.0 52.8 49.4 24.4 26.5 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 27.5 27.9 27.8 1.8 73.1 70.9 24.9 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 27.7 28.4 26.0 0.9 62.9 60.6 26.0 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 21.1 21.7 23.0 1.0 60.0 60.8 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 27.8 28.4 28.9 2.2 78.0 75.5 24.6 25.9 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------