***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2012.-24.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 31.6 4.8 96.9 94.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 29.2 31.7 32.2 5.3 97.2 95.0 25.1 26.5 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 29.3 31.4 32.2 5.2 96.2 94.3 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 22.7 24.9 29.0 4.4 97.5 93.3 18.8 20.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 29.4 32.3 29.9 4.7 97.1 93.4 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 28.5 30.1 26.5 4.0 94.5 91.7 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 29.4 31.1 31.7 4.8 97.0 93.5 24.7 26.4 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 17.7 20.8 27.9 4.6 96.3 93.0 13.9 15.6 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 28.7 32.6 30.9 4.8 96.9 93.8 25.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 28.6 31.7 29.1 4.8 96.9 93.6 25.1 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 29.0 32.3 29.5 4.7 96.9 93.4 25.6 27.1 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 28.4 31.1 28.8 4.7 97.0 93.7 25.0 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 29.4 32.5 28.8 4.8 97.9 94.6 26.1 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 29.2 31.2 30.1 4.4 91.8 89.8 24.1 27.3 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 30.2 33.9 30.4 4.2 98.0 94.5 26.6 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 30.1 33.1 29.1 4.6 97.2 93.7 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 28.6 30.8 31.5 4.9 96.8 93.6 24.7 26.1 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 28.0 31.6 28.2 4.8 96.5 92.9 24.3 26.0 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 28.7 31.4 32.4 5.4 97.2 95.3 24.2 26.2 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 24.3 26.9 26.0 4.8 95.7 92.8 20.2 21.9 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 29.2 31.5 31.6 4.7 95.0 92.9 25.4 26.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 29.1 31.5 31.3 4.7 96.4 92.9 24.5 26.2 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 29.0 31.8 32.2 5.3 96.7 94.6 24.4 27.2 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 28.6 31.5 30.1 4.7 94.3 91.9 24.3 26.8 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 29.5 32.0 30.1 4.5 95.6 92.9 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 29.2 31.9 28.2 4.7 98.0 94.8 24.8 26.7 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 28.9 31.4 30.8 4.6 96.9 93.6 24.9 26.5 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 30.4 33.7 29.4 4.1 96.2 92.6 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 23.2 26.8 27.4 4.8 95.7 92.6 19.1 21.8 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 29.3 31.7 32.4 5.3 97.3 95.3 24.7 26.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------