***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.3 24.1 12.6 92.4 64.9 53.6 4.6 11.1 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.0 19.4 10.9 89.6 64.2 49.8 4.8 12.3 19.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.9 12.2 86.6 61.6 53.3 3.1 9.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 6.9 8.7 11.8 86.8 59.7 52.0 3.1 5.2 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.1 9.9 9.7 74.9 56.8 47.0 3.5 9.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.9 6.5 13.1 85.0 58.0 51.3 2.6 4.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.8 11.3 94.8 63.5 48.4 4.2 11.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 19.8 20.1 11.2 81.1 56.0 49.2 7.6 14.8 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.4 13.4 91.6 62.3 52.8 2.6 5.2 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 11.5 11.4 76.5 54.6 46.6 8.7 11.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.7 6.9 9.6 75.5 55.8 47.9 3.7 6.6 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.5 13.8 9.8 81.6 58.3 50.2 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.9 9.6 78.5 57.4 48.4 3.0 6.3 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.8 14.7 15.2 94.9 62.4 53.6 4.4 11.1 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.1 1.5 7.8 71.3 55.5 46.9 0.4 1.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.4 9.7 78.1 58.1 50.1 3.5 3.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 16.9 11.0 96.2 65.8 48.6 2.3 4.2 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 17.3 16.9 15.0 89.2 57.0 49.7 9.0 14.9 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.9 11.6 92.5 66.0 53.1 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.6 18.2 10.9 71.2 50.1 41.2 10.6 18.2 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.2 13.7 13.7 94.0 61.9 55.2 2.3 10.8 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 16.0 11.5 102.3 65.5 49.8 3.9 7.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.8 18.0 12.7 94.5 67.9 56.6 5.6 8.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.4 15.2 14.8 93.6 59.9 53.0 5.0 9.2 20.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.1 9.7 67.0 53.2 42.6 4.5 6.4 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.7 7.4 11.0 97.0 62.6 53.6 2.4 5.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.2 12.5 85.1 60.7 49.8 6.3 9.3 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.5 4.2 9.2 74.6 57.2 48.9 1.1 2.5 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.3 21.2 15.7 91.1 57.1 49.5 9.2 16.7 31.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.4 16.5 11.7 94.3 66.1 52.9 7.3 9.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------