***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.6 23.7 7.0 115.9 72.1 52.5 0.2 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 23.8 8.5 141.2 77.2 55.1 2.8 6.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.3 6.1 91.0 68.1 51.0 1.2 5.7 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.0 22.3 5.6 81.6 67.4 52.3 1.4 5.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.3 15.2 5.9 88.2 70.5 52.7 0.2 4.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.1 13.1 8.1 97.6 66.5 52.2 0.3 5.6 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 14.6 8.3 131.9 76.1 54.9 0.9 3.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.4 26.7 9.6 110.5 70.8 56.2 2.6 13.3 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.7 18.1 6.2 83.7 67.3 52.0 0.1 2.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 16.3 9.5 103.8 68.9 54.6 2.7 7.6 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.1 17.1 6.3 102.2 72.3 55.1 1.0 4.7 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.3 19.3 6.6 103.4 72.1 55.6 0.2 5.2 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.9 15.4 6.2 97.0 70.0 55.3 1.4 5.6 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.5 10.7 112.1 69.1 50.1 1.4 8.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.6 12.8 5.4 99.5 73.5 53.8 0.4 3.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.9 14.5 6.2 99.4 71.1 54.8 1.0 6.5 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.1 17.2 8.4 128.1 75.0 52.1 3.5 6.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.2 22.4 11.7 109.0 67.7 53.0 0.2 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 23.6 7.9 129.6 74.8 54.0 1.0 7.8 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.5 16.9 12.6 109.6 64.8 52.8 2.4 9.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.6 26.2 5.4 79.2 67.3 51.5 0.7 5.6 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.2 22.6 9.1 132.3 77.1 53.3 2.0 6.7 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.8 16.2 7.3 108.8 69.2 51.4 0.5 8.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.7 19.3 8.7 93.8 64.5 50.4 2.0 9.6 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.2 20.0 6.6 102.6 71.8 52.1 0.3 4.4 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.7 4.9 90.0 70.9 54.0 1.7 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.9 17.5 7.3 114.5 72.5 52.2 0.6 3.8 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 16.1 6.0 91.2 70.2 54.3 0.7 4.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.8 32.2 12.6 111.4 66.5 52.5 7.6 15.1 32.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.7 21.4 8.3 133.6 77.2 54.7 1.3 3.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------