***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 30.0 31.8 31.6 3.7 90.1 87.0 26.6 27.4 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 29.9 31.6 31.4 3.4 89.1 83.9 27.0 27.8 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 30.7 31.6 31.7 3.7 88.5 85.3 26.5 27.5 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 23.2 25.3 29.6 4.3 93.0 90.6 19.9 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 30.9 32.1 30.4 4.1 89.3 87.8 27.1 27.6 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 29.0 30.0 27.1 3.2 87.8 83.7 25.6 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 29.5 31.9 31.3 3.3 89.2 84.4 26.9 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 18.2 18.6 27.6 3.4 86.2 84.2 14.4 16.1 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 30.3 32.0 31.4 4.2 91.2 89.5 26.5 27.6 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 29.6 30.5 28.7 3.6 86.6 84.6 26.3 27.1 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 29.9 31.4 30.7 4.0 90.2 87.4 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 29.1 30.6 29.5 4.1 90.6 89.1 25.9 26.7 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 30.3 31.7 29.7 3.7 89.4 86.3 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.5 29.4 2.7 80.6 78.0 26.8 27.1 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 30.9 33.2 31.6 3.7 91.0 88.3 28.1 28.4 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 31.0 33.2 30.1 4.0 91.7 87.9 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 29.1 30.9 30.8 3.1 85.9 82.0 26.0 27.6 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 28.8 29.4 27.1 2.9 81.6 79.5 25.2 26.3 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 29.5 30.9 31.6 3.6 89.3 84.9 26.3 27.1 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 23.9 24.5 24.6 2.4 78.5 76.5 20.6 22.1 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 30.9 31.9 31.7 3.8 87.8 86.1 26.4 27.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.4 30.1 30.1 2.6 80.8 77.8 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 30.2 31.2 32.0 4.2 91.1 88.3 26.6 27.1 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 29.5 30.7 29.7 3.1 83.4 81.4 26.1 26.9 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 30.4 31.9 30.4 3.6 88.6 85.9 27.1 27.7 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 29.9 30.7 28.7 3.8 89.1 87.0 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 30.0 31.3 30.8 3.5 89.1 86.0 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 30.8 32.7 30.2 3.7 90.8 87.7 27.9 28.5 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 23.9 24.5 25.9 2.5 78.8 77.0 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 29.6 31.3 31.5 3.5 88.9 84.6 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------