***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 16.6 17.0 20.1 1.4 86.0 77.4 15.6 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.9 19.5 0.9 78.2 68.2 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 18.7 19.2 20.2 1.3 83.5 76.0 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 14.6 15.4 17.9 1.6 89.3 83.6 12.9 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 15.0 15.8 18.1 1.6 90.0 83.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 13.9 14.1 15.2 0.9 80.3 75.5 12.9 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.0 19.8 1.1 81.2 72.5 15.7 16.1 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 9.7 10.3 15.3 1.1 84.5 76.7 8.8 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 16.3 16.9 18.2 1.6 91.3 84.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 16.0 16.6 16.2 1.2 86.3 78.6 15.4 15.5 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 15.7 16.5 17.5 1.5 89.3 83.4 14.7 15.2 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 14.0 14.6 16.4 1.3 87.1 81.4 12.9 13.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.0 15.1 15.7 0.9 81.4 75.8 13.9 14.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.9 17.4 0.8 78.1 71.2 16.0 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 17.5 18.5 19.6 1.7 93.7 87.3 16.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 16.6 16.9 16.9 1.4 88.7 83.1 15.7 16.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.1 19.1 0.8 75.0 66.9 16.2 16.3 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 14.6 14.9 15.1 0.9 83.0 74.4 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.7 19.6 1.0 79.6 69.9 15.5 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.5 10.7 12.9 0.7 79.3 70.1 9.3 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 16.0 16.5 19.4 1.5 87.5 80.6 15.3 15.5 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.0 19.0 0.7 71.7 64.8 14.9 15.4 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.1 19.7 1.2 82.8 75.1 15.0 15.2 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 16.5 16.8 17.3 1.0 82.9 75.1 15.7 16.1 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 16.2 16.8 19.0 1.5 87.8 79.6 15.3 15.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 15.1 15.3 15.3 1.1 85.0 79.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 16.5 16.9 19.5 1.5 87.8 78.5 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 15.1 15.7 18.3 1.6 91.5 85.3 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.1 14.3 0.7 77.9 70.0 12.8 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.2 19.9 1.1 80.4 71.6 15.7 16.2 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------