***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 15.6 16.0 18.8 -0.2 50.0 48.3 15.5 16.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.8 18.4 -0.3 45.0 44.5 15.3 15.9 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 17.5 18.2 19.1 -0.1 53.4 49.8 17.5 18.1 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.6 16.9 0.5 72.0 65.8 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.4 16.8 0.1 60.2 55.4 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.7 14.0 15.0 0.5 74.8 68.0 12.8 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.1 18.6 -0.2 48.7 47.8 15.5 16.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.4 14.6 0.2 65.1 59.7 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.8 0.0 58.0 52.4 15.1 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 15.3 0.2 63.0 57.6 15.2 15.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.1 16.5 0.0 56.3 51.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.6 15.7 0.2 63.6 58.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.2 14.9 -0.1 48.4 48.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.1 16.6 0.0 53.3 51.6 16.0 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.3 18.6 0.4 67.7 62.8 16.2 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.1 15.9 0.1 56.5 54.5 15.2 16.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.4 18.2 -0.2 47.6 46.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.3 14.5 0.3 65.1 61.2 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 18.5 -0.3 45.6 44.3 15.6 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.3 12.5 0.4 68.5 64.3 9.2 9.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.4 18.0 -0.1 55.0 50.0 15.1 15.3 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.5 18.4 -0.1 50.9 48.7 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.1 18.6 -0.2 50.4 47.3 15.0 15.1 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.1 16.6 0.1 60.0 55.2 15.6 16.0 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.1 15.8 17.6 -0.1 52.4 50.1 15.3 15.7 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.9 14.9 14.7 0.3 66.0 60.0 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.3 15.9 18.1 -0.1 51.7 49.7 15.6 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.1 17.4 0.6 73.5 67.5 13.9 14.1 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.6 13.9 0.3 64.6 60.9 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 15.6 16.0 18.7 -0.3 46.7 45.5 15.7 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------