***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 0.0 23.6 61.6 39.9 30.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 21.7 24.1 23.9 61.5 32.5 30.3 24.1 39.3 66.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 24.9 35.8 23.9 63.4 35.7 30.1 33.1 47.4 65.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 34.6 44.3 27.7 70.4 44.9 32.9 37.7 46.5 57.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 18.9 35.1 27.2 69.5 43.3 33.6 29.0 37.7 46.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 26.6 38.4 35.1 71.0 41.1 34.2 33.1 40.3 44.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 18.4 19.0 23.3 58.2 31.1 28.9 20.2 34.8 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 39.0 44.5 28.4 64.8 35.5 33.1 42.0 64.9 86.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 22.2 32.8 27.7 68.4 40.9 32.7 28.7 41.7 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 37.7 40.4 30.4 65.6 33.6 32.3 40.3 50.8 59.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 31.4 38.4 23.7 66.0 40.5 34.1 32.2 46.7 49.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 24.7 36.1 22.4 67.3 44.3 35.2 31.3 36.8 44.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.1 27.5 27.3 70.2 43.8 35.6 23.8 34.3 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 37.5 44.9 29.4 62.7 32.9 30.1 44.9 59.6 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 15.4 30.2 25.0 69.9 45.6 31.7 19.5 31.7 39.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 25.2 33.4 25.5 67.6 42.1 34.6 30.0 38.8 45.1 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 24.5 25.1 22.3 56.5 27.9 28.3 28.1 39.3 55.4 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 30.5 41.3 35.7 67.4 30.8 33.1 41.4 46.1 55.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 21.3 32.6 23.7 62.0 33.5 30.4 32.1 43.3 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 37.3 44.9 39.5 70.0 35.7 34.4 38.4 60.2 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 25.3 38.8 24.9 67.4 40.3 32.3 26.9 45.7 62.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 31.6 33.1 22.7 55.7 27.5 27.5 35.0 47.8 59.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 28.7 31.3 23.6 61.3 35.8 29.6 27.5 46.1 50.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 34.0 40.7 29.9 65.7 31.5 31.7 40.8 56.4 73.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 22.4 31.7 29.1 69.2 40.4 32.7 30.0 33.0 44.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 20.8 34.5 23.4 74.6 51.5 37.7 22.1 33.3 43.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.3 28.2 27.8 64.2 39.3 31.6 24.0 41.5 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 18.3 28.6 26.2 68.6 45.0 32.6 21.6 30.4 37.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 44.1 50.1 37.2 68.1 31.1 33.3 50.9 65.1 86.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 21.4 23.6 23.8 61.2 34.6 30.0 23.4 30.5 40.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------