***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 71.1 61.6 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.4 10.4 94.5 64.6 50.8 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.8 8.2 78.4 62.9 48.1 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.7 1.6 6.7 65.6 52.8 44.9 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.2 7.0 70.8 56.8 45.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 3.1 2.9 7.8 74.3 60.9 49.9 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.2 4.6 9.7 80.6 59.8 50.0 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.5 8.4 83.3 58.1 48.5 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.2 5.5 7.0 73.1 59.8 43.9 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 12.9 8.8 81.2 58.7 46.3 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.2 6.9 77.7 56.2 48.8 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.1 6.2 74.0 58.5 48.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 0.4 1.3 6.5 65.2 55.9 43.1 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.8 12.4 97.9 65.6 50.6 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.5 4.9 53.7 48.3 39.9 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 0.2 0.8 6.3 68.6 56.1 44.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.2 10.4 98.2 62.8 47.9 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.1 9.1 10.9 88.8 59.2 48.5 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.0 6.0 10.7 98.5 66.3 50.8 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.1 10.1 84.3 54.7 47.5 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.5 7.3 78.4 60.4 49.6 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 6.8 11.4 113.9 64.6 49.2 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.6 8.4 11.0 96.4 66.8 50.3 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.3 10.6 90.9 62.3 50.1 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.6 8.4 70.9 57.5 48.6 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.7 5.3 59.5 56.2 41.8 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.1 8.6 69.1 59.7 49.8 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.4 5.9 62.6 51.6 42.5 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.4 11.5 92.7 58.5 49.3 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.5 10.9 9.6 84.4 63.1 50.4 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------