***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.1 26.8 0.3 50.6 52.7 23.0 24.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.5 26.8 0.1 51.8 51.4 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.2 26.9 0.0 49.8 50.8 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.6 17.3 24.9 0.3 53.3 53.7 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 23.2 24.3 24.7 -0.3 45.2 48.0 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.3 22.6 0.0 47.1 50.6 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.8 26.9 0.3 53.4 52.9 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.9 23.1 -0.2 47.6 49.2 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.9 24.8 -0.4 44.0 46.7 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.6 23.6 -0.3 45.3 47.8 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.1 24.6 -0.1 48.3 49.8 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.4 24.4 0.0 49.3 50.5 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.2 23.6 -0.3 45.4 48.2 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.1 23.9 24.2 -0.5 43.6 46.4 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.6 25.9 0.7 58.4 57.2 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.8 24.5 0.0 49.5 50.8 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.6 26.5 0.2 52.8 51.5 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 22.9 23.0 -0.3 44.7 47.9 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.2 26.8 0.1 51.1 50.9 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 19.0 20.7 -0.3 44.9 48.0 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.2 23.9 25.7 -0.3 46.6 47.9 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.6 26.4 0.2 53.6 51.5 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.4 26.6 0.0 50.2 50.4 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 24.8 23.5 24.5 -0.3 45.3 47.6 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.9 24.9 0.0 49.5 50.0 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.8 24.5 0.4 53.1 54.3 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.6 25.8 0.2 50.9 52.0 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.4 25.1 25.2 0.5 54.7 55.0 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.4 18.4 22.0 -0.3 44.1 47.4 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.9 26.9 0.2 52.0 52.1 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------