***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 25.5 1.0 73.8 67.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 25.7 25.7 25.5 1.2 75.9 68.4 23.9 24.7 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 25.3 25.2 25.7 1.1 73.5 68.7 24.0 24.3 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 17.6 18.4 23.9 0.9 69.6 65.4 16.8 17.3 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.6 24.1 0.9 71.7 67.1 24.5 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 24.7 24.9 22.4 1.2 73.9 71.1 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 25.3 25.2 25.3 1.1 74.0 67.7 23.2 24.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.2 22.6 1.0 73.8 68.6 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 25.5 25.2 24.5 1.0 72.9 68.5 23.9 24.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.1 23.3 1.1 74.0 68.8 23.5 24.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.6 23.9 1.1 74.1 69.4 24.0 24.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 24.9 24.6 23.7 1.1 73.3 69.5 23.6 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.1 23.5 1.2 73.2 70.1 24.8 25.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.1 24.2 1.2 75.7 70.1 23.7 24.3 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 25.2 25.9 24.8 1.0 70.0 67.7 24.7 25.0 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 26.5 26.4 23.8 1.1 73.5 69.8 25.2 25.7 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 24.7 25.0 25.1 1.2 75.5 69.1 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 24.2 24.1 22.4 1.0 72.6 67.9 23.0 23.4 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.6 25.7 1.3 77.8 70.1 23.7 24.3 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 20.4 20.1 20.4 0.9 70.8 66.3 19.2 19.8 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 25.3 25.1 25.1 0.9 70.4 65.8 24.1 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.8 25.3 1.3 77.9 70.4 23.3 24.5 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 25.4 25.8 25.7 1.4 80.9 72.5 23.5 24.5 25.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 25.1 24.9 24.1 1.1 73.9 69.6 23.7 24.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 25.8 25.6 24.1 0.9 70.7 66.2 23.5 24.4 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 25.5 25.7 23.3 0.9 72.4 67.1 24.4 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 25.4 25.3 24.7 1.0 72.8 66.7 23.5 24.5 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 25.5 25.8 24.4 0.9 69.1 65.8 24.6 25.3 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 19.5 19.5 21.5 0.9 71.5 66.6 18.5 18.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 25.4 25.2 25.7 1.1 75.3 68.1 23.5 24.5 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------