***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.6 15.5 0.9 67.7 61.6 10.3 12.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.1 15.2 1.0 66.7 61.7 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.9 15.6 0.9 66.9 62.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 12.7 0.7 63.2 60.0 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.0 11.3 12.4 0.4 58.4 55.9 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.2 10.8 0.5 58.6 58.0 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.5 15.4 1.0 66.5 62.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.9 10.4 0.3 53.5 54.9 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.5 12.6 0.4 58.7 55.6 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.8 11.1 0.3 55.5 54.6 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.7 11.3 11.7 0.3 56.3 55.2 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.9 11.0 0.3 55.6 55.7 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.3 10.4 0.2 53.9 53.3 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 12.7 0.4 58.3 56.3 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 13.2 13.4 14.0 0.9 66.7 63.0 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.2 11.3 0.4 56.7 55.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.6 14.9 0.9 65.7 60.8 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 10.3 0.3 55.9 54.3 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.4 15.2 0.9 66.3 61.8 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.3 8.3 0.1 50.9 51.4 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.0 14.2 0.5 60.4 57.4 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 11.5 12.0 14.8 0.9 66.3 61.4 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.6 15.0 0.9 64.3 61.7 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.0 12.5 0.5 59.6 57.5 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.3 13.8 0.6 60.9 58.0 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.8 10.5 0.5 57.0 57.1 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.0 14.7 0.8 65.0 60.2 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.0 12.9 0.7 63.0 60.4 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.7 9.7 0.2 53.0 52.6 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.8 15.5 1.0 68.1 63.1 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------