***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 27.2 27.3 27.8 0.7 59.2 58.6 24.5 27.0 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 26.6 27.1 27.6 0.6 58.7 57.4 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 26.3 26.3 27.3 0.0 52.9 51.9 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 19.4 20.2 24.7 0.2 53.9 53.3 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 27.5 26.3 24.7 -1.0 42.6 42.3 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 26.5 25.5 22.7 -0.5 45.9 44.7 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 26.3 27.0 27.7 0.7 60.2 59.0 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.0 13.6 21.8 -1.7 33.9 33.6 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 26.4 25.9 25.6 -0.8 43.2 43.8 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.7 25.3 23.0 -1.5 36.8 36.6 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 27.2 25.8 24.6 -1.3 39.1 38.6 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 26.7 24.8 23.3 -1.3 37.4 37.2 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 27.8 26.3 24.4 -1.1 40.3 40.2 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 26.5 25.6 24.9 -1.0 42.6 42.2 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 27.3 27.9 27.9 1.0 62.5 61.9 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 28.1 27.6 24.6 -0.8 43.0 42.8 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 25.6 26.3 27.2 0.7 59.0 58.5 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.1 24.2 21.9 -1.7 34.2 34.3 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 26.3 27.0 27.5 0.4 56.9 55.6 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 19.9 18.7 19.7 -2.0 26.5 28.9 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 26.6 26.3 26.6 -0.5 46.7 47.0 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 26.2 26.5 27.1 0.4 55.6 55.9 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 26.4 26.8 27.4 0.3 55.7 55.2 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 26.2 25.6 24.7 -1.1 41.7 41.0 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 26.9 27.0 26.0 -0.1 51.8 51.5 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 27.6 25.7 23.0 -1.2 39.1 38.1 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 26.6 26.9 26.9 0.5 56.7 56.9 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 27.2 27.0 25.8 0.2 54.0 53.9 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.9 18.9 21.0 -1.9 30.7 31.5 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 26.6 26.7 27.8 0.6 59.6 57.8 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------