***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.1 22.6 0.5 56.3 55.5 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.8 22.5 0.4 54.2 53.7 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.7 22.7 0.4 54.2 53.8 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 19.7 0.5 55.7 55.0 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.3 20.8 0.2 50.3 51.9 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.3 23.1 19.0 0.3 52.6 53.0 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.5 22.6 0.6 57.5 55.6 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.2 19.6 0.5 55.4 55.3 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.7 21.6 0.3 52.0 53.2 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.6 20.4 0.7 56.3 56.7 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.5 21.1 0.1 50.7 51.4 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.5 20.4 0.2 52.3 52.3 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.2 20.4 -0.1 47.4 49.7 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.9 21.8 0.9 59.7 57.7 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.3 21.5 0.2 52.2 52.1 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.0 20.6 0.1 49.4 51.1 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.6 22.2 0.6 56.6 55.1 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.8 19.9 0.9 57.0 58.4 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.2 22.6 0.4 53.8 54.0 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.5 17.9 0.8 56.2 57.4 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.1 22.3 0.4 54.4 54.4 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.3 22.5 0.8 59.0 56.7 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.9 23.6 22.9 0.5 54.3 54.9 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.5 21.7 0.7 56.9 57.0 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.1 21.0 0.3 53.1 53.2 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.6 19.9 0.1 48.8 51.3 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.2 21.9 0.5 55.4 55.3 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 24.1 23.7 20.6 0.5 54.9 54.4 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.4 19.2 0.7 55.0 57.2 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.2 22.6 0.4 54.3 54.0 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------