***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.7 2.1 8.2 65.0 52.4 45.7 0.1 1.4 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.1 6.7 8.6 73.3 56.4 47.3 0.0 2.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.9 5.7 8.4 68.3 56.3 47.0 0.2 4.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 9.6 74.7 57.8 47.0 1.9 5.0 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.8 9.9 8.9 73.8 56.6 42.9 0.5 4.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.0 11.2 92.5 60.4 49.1 1.8 7.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.6 5.4 8.2 69.7 56.1 45.9 0.1 1.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.0 11.0 83.8 59.1 49.9 2.8 9.3 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.2 9.7 77.4 57.8 47.9 0.5 6.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.9 10.8 80.0 58.4 48.8 2.3 5.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.7 5.3 9.1 78.3 58.3 47.6 0.3 3.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.3 4.8 9.4 81.0 57.4 48.3 0.3 1.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.2 6.1 10.1 81.3 57.1 48.2 1.1 4.6 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.8 8.5 10.7 75.3 56.2 47.0 1.0 6.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.9 8.5 66.6 57.6 45.7 0.0 1.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 3.7 9.2 78.2 56.7 47.1 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.4 5.5 9.3 79.5 58.3 47.2 0.1 0.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 17.8 12.2 83.5 60.5 50.5 2.4 8.6 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.6 8.6 73.6 56.3 47.7 0.0 1.8 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.0 15.2 90.4 60.1 50.2 2.6 6.5 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.4 10.1 8.6 70.2 56.6 46.2 1.2 5.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.8 10.4 86.7 58.5 49.1 0.0 3.6 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 0.6 3.3 8.8 74.0 57.4 47.7 0.2 1.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.8 10.2 73.8 58.3 48.1 2.2 7.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 0.7 2.2 7.8 58.7 51.6 39.5 0.6 2.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.9 10.5 83.1 61.6 48.1 1.0 4.5 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.9 8.0 60.9 51.0 42.5 0.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.6 9.2 75.4 58.4 46.7 0.1 1.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 22.1 13.4 85.5 59.4 50.5 3.7 15.8 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.6 1.9 8.3 68.7 56.1 47.4 0.1 1.3 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------