***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.1 18.9 -0.9 45.6 42.5 19.9 21.3 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.0 19.1 -0.8 44.8 43.8 20.9 21.2 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.5 19.2 -0.8 46.2 43.5 20.8 21.7 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.1 13.2 16.5 -0.7 45.1 44.8 12.0 14.6 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.7 17.4 -1.0 43.4 43.0 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.1 15.8 -0.8 42.8 44.9 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.9 18.9 -0.8 45.8 43.4 20.1 21.1 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.5 15.9 -0.8 45.4 44.3 9.9 11.5 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.1 18.1 -0.8 44.5 43.9 20.5 21.6 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 21.4 20.7 16.8 -0.8 45.1 44.4 19.8 20.9 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.4 17.6 -0.9 45.5 43.6 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.5 20.6 16.8 -0.9 45.3 43.8 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 20.6 21.4 16.9 -1.2 41.3 42.0 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.4 18.1 -0.6 47.6 45.2 20.3 21.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 19.2 20.6 18.5 -0.4 46.6 47.1 19.3 20.8 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.3 17.1 -1.0 43.5 42.8 21.3 22.8 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.2 20.5 18.8 -0.7 45.8 44.6 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 19.9 16.2 -0.7 44.6 44.7 19.2 20.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 19.2 -0.7 45.7 44.1 20.6 21.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.6 16.9 14.2 -0.7 45.6 44.6 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.0 18.8 -0.9 44.4 42.8 20.3 21.4 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.0 18.7 -0.8 44.1 44.2 20.2 21.6 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.4 19.4 -0.5 48.1 45.6 20.8 21.5 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.0 20.6 18.0 -0.7 44.9 44.8 20.2 21.7 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.5 17.6 -1.0 44.1 42.1 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.3 16.3 -1.0 42.8 42.7 20.3 21.5 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.1 18.2 -1.0 44.1 42.1 20.8 21.6 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.8 20.7 17.5 -0.6 46.3 46.0 19.3 21.1 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.3 15.5 -0.7 45.3 44.6 14.5 16.7 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.4 20.8 19.1 -0.8 45.0 43.1 20.4 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------