***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 -3.0 13.7 17.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 6.7 5.5 7.9 -3.2 10.7 16.1 8.5 9.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 9.8 9.6 8.5 -2.7 17.0 19.6 10.5 11.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 90 10 0 100 4.7 3.9 6.0 -3.3 12.2 14.0 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 6.0 5.6 7.1 -2.6 16.6 19.7 7.3 8.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.6 6.0 5.9 -1.6 26.8 29.3 6.2 8.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 7.6 6.5 7.9 -3.3 9.7 14.9 8.6 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 2.2 2.5 6.4 -1.3 27.4 32.5 2.9 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 7.7 7.3 8.0 -2.0 22.5 24.3 9.0 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 7.3 7.2 6.9 -1.6 25.8 29.2 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 6.4 6.5 7.1 -2.0 22.2 24.5 7.5 9.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 5.6 5.8 6.9 -1.5 25.7 30.1 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 6.1 6.5 6.9 -1.4 26.7 31.3 7.1 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 8.2 8.2 7.8 -2.1 20.8 24.7 9.1 9.8 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 7.5 6.0 7.3 -3.2 11.7 13.4 8.7 10.1 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 7.4 7.9 6.9 -1.9 21.9 25.3 8.3 10.1 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 7.9 6.5 7.4 -3.4 9.0 14.1 8.5 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 6.3 7.0 6.4 -1.3 28.5 32.7 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 7.6 7.2 8.1 -2.9 13.8 18.1 8.4 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.9 5.1 -0.7 30.6 39.2 3.3 4.8 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 6.4 5.6 8.4 -2.7 15.7 19.7 7.9 9.8 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 6.6 6.1 7.7 -3.2 11.2 16.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 7.2 7.3 8.4 -2.5 20.8 21.7 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 7.5 7.0 7.7 -1.8 25.9 27.5 8.0 9.4 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 7.6 6.6 7.4 -3.2 12.9 15.9 8.2 10.0 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 6.9 6.5 6.9 -1.2 29.6 34.1 7.0 9.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 7.2 6.8 7.9 -3.0 14.1 17.3 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 4.7 3.7 6.7 -3.1 13.1 15.0 6.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.7 6.1 -0.9 31.2 37.2 6.7 7.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 7.6 7.1 8.3 -3.1 12.8 16.9 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------