***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.8 16.0 0.7 57.5 56.2 14.0 15.2 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.3 16.7 16.1 0.7 61.2 56.1 14.0 15.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.0 16.4 0.7 57.7 56.1 14.8 16.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.0 13.5 0.5 53.5 54.4 7.0 8.9 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.3 14.3 0.4 53.4 53.5 13.7 16.1 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.8 13.2 0.4 54.1 53.6 13.5 15.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.8 17.1 16.0 0.7 61.5 56.5 13.4 15.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.0 13.5 0.5 52.8 54.4 5.8 7.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.0 15.0 0.5 54.5 53.8 14.0 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 16.7 16.5 14.2 0.5 53.7 54.1 13.3 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.1 14.4 0.5 52.8 53.9 13.5 17.0 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.7 14.2 0.5 53.5 54.8 13.1 16.2 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.0 13.8 0.5 54.1 54.1 13.9 16.0 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.0 15.4 0.7 56.7 55.6 14.6 16.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.6 14.0 0.6 54.0 54.8 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.9 14.2 0.5 54.6 54.2 14.5 17.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.2 15.7 0.6 60.8 55.2 13.3 14.8 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.4 14.3 0.7 55.0 55.2 13.0 15.4 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.4 17.0 16.3 0.8 60.9 56.2 13.9 15.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.0 12.0 0.6 51.9 54.6 10.7 12.9 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.6 15.5 0.5 54.8 54.1 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 15.7 0.6 59.4 55.1 13.8 15.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.5 16.5 0.8 60.6 56.5 14.3 15.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.4 15.4 0.7 56.5 55.7 14.2 17.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 14.3 0.5 56.3 54.5 13.5 14.7 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.7 13.8 0.8 55.4 57.3 14.5 15.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.9 15.4 0.7 58.0 55.7 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.8 13.8 0.5 53.4 54.3 13.1 14.5 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.7 13.5 0.6 53.6 55.0 9.8 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.8 16.9 16.2 0.8 60.0 56.5 13.6 15.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------