***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 14.7 12.5 12.4 -4.9 4.2 7.7 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 14.9 13.4 12.6 -4.9 5.8 8.6 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 14.5 13.1 12.7 -4.8 5.9 9.6 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 7.1 5.0 8.7 -5.9 2.3 4.3 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 14.8 13.3 11.0 -4.9 7.8 10.2 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 14.2 14.6 11.7 -2.6 20.3 26.2 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 14.4 13.1 12.7 -4.6 6.4 9.6 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 6.1 5.9 11.9 -2.6 20.2 26.2 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 15.0 13.6 12.3 -4.4 8.7 12.2 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 15.2 14.4 12.1 -3.3 15.5 20.7 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 15.1 13.4 11.8 -4.0 11.3 15.3 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 14.7 14.3 12.3 -2.8 18.5 23.7 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 16.0 16.4 13.6 -2.1 25.3 29.9 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 15.5 14.2 13.0 -3.6 14.2 18.9 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 14.0 12.1 10.6 -5.8 1.6 2.8 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 15.7 15.2 12.0 -3.7 14.7 17.7 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 14.2 13.0 12.2 -4.9 5.5 8.6 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 15.3 15.1 12.3 -2.6 20.4 27.3 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 14.4 13.3 12.7 -4.8 6.2 9.3 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 12.4 11.8 -1.3 32.7 38.0 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 14.5 13.0 12.3 -4.9 7.2 9.4 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 14.8 13.3 12.3 -4.8 5.8 9.1 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 14.7 13.8 12.9 -4.4 7.9 11.6 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 15.1 14.0 13.0 -3.6 15.0 19.5 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 14.4 13.0 10.9 -5.2 4.8 6.8 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 15.7 16.2 12.8 -1.9 26.2 31.1 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 15.0 12.9 12.1 -4.7 6.6 9.4 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 14.4 12.3 9.9 -5.7 3.4 5.1 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.5 -1.7 29.0 34.8 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 14.8 13.3 12.7 -4.8 5.7 8.8 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------