***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.4 3.8 0.1 48.5 50.4 0.5 2.6 3.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -0.2 1.1 3.3 0.1 48.3 50.3 0.7 1.3 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.6 3.7 0.1 50.9 50.5 1.7 3.5 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.7 -1.8 1.1 0.0 49.4 49.6 -3.7 -1.8 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.0 49.6 49.5 0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.1 47.5 53.2 -0.2 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -0.1 1.4 3.4 0.0 47.1 49.8 0.6 1.5 2.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -3.6 0.3 0.0 50.0 51.2 -5.6 -3.6 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.6 2.1 0.0 49.3 50.2 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.0 49.6 50.7 0.5 1.2 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.0 49.2 50.0 0.0 1.7 2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.0 49.5 51.0 -0.9 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 48.4 51.8 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.1 1.8 0.0 50.7 50.0 1.1 2.0 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.2 1.9 2.0 0.0 50.2 50.0 1.1 1.9 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.0 48.0 50.9 0.8 2.4 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 -0.2 1.2 3.2 0.0 46.5 49.4 0.6 1.5 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 50.7 51.4 -1.0 0.6 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.2 1.6 3.3 0.1 49.6 50.6 0.8 1.6 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.2 52.4 52.9 -3.8 -2.5 -0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 1.9 1.3 3.2 0.0 50.1 50.0 0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -0.2 0.9 3.1 0.0 47.7 49.3 0.1 1.2 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.0 1.2 3.2 0.1 49.6 50.5 0.5 1.3 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.5 1.6 0.0 49.5 50.3 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.0 2.6 0.1 49.6 50.1 0.5 2.0 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 49.1 52.4 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.3 3.3 0.1 49.6 50.4 0.1 2.4 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.0 50.1 50.2 -0.3 0.9 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.2 51.7 52.3 -3.1 -0.7 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -0.1 1.4 3.4 0.1 48.7 50.6 0.8 1.5 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------