***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.4 11.5 10.4 -0.6 43.2 45.4 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.1 8.9 10.2 -0.7 42.1 44.1 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.8 10.0 10.7 -0.7 43.3 44.9 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 6.7 5.3 8.2 -0.3 44.7 47.9 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.2 11.0 9.1 -0.5 43.1 46.2 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.9 10.7 8.5 -0.2 42.8 47.5 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.0 10.3 -0.6 42.6 44.6 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.9 8.5 -0.6 40.6 44.7 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.2 11.5 9.7 -0.6 43.0 45.4 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.4 9.7 9.0 -0.6 41.9 45.0 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.1 10.7 9.2 -0.6 41.1 45.3 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.8 10.2 8.9 -0.6 39.6 44.6 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.9 10.5 8.7 -0.4 40.8 45.6 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 10.5 9.9 -0.8 42.3 44.2 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.0 9.0 8.8 -0.2 45.2 48.8 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.4 11.6 8.9 -0.5 41.7 45.9 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.4 10.1 -0.6 42.1 44.6 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 8.9 9.0 -0.7 42.0 44.7 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 9.6 10.4 -0.8 42.7 43.9 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 8.4 7.4 -0.5 42.5 45.2 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.8 10.9 10.2 -0.5 43.2 45.9 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.5 10.1 -0.7 44.3 44.2 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.1 9.6 10.7 -0.8 42.5 43.9 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.2 11.3 9.8 -0.8 42.0 44.5 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.5 10.8 9.1 -0.4 44.2 46.5 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.2 8.6 -0.3 39.0 46.0 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.5 10.3 9.9 -0.5 43.4 45.7 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.4 9.7 8.5 -0.3 44.8 47.9 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.2 8.4 -0.6 42.2 44.7 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.2 10.3 -0.7 42.9 44.2 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------