***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 14.4 17.0 13.5 3.7 85.8 78.7 9.0 11.0 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 13.1 16.5 13.8 4.0 86.7 80.1 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 13.7 17.0 14.1 3.9 83.9 78.2 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 8.2 10.5 10.5 3.5 83.0 75.7 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.0 16.0 12.1 3.6 82.6 76.4 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.1 14.2 11.1 3.5 81.1 75.4 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 13.0 15.7 13.6 3.9 87.0 80.3 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.4 6.3 11.4 3.7 82.1 77.2 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.5 17.1 13.0 3.7 82.9 76.9 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 13.4 14.8 12.2 3.8 80.6 76.5 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 14.0 15.4 12.5 3.7 81.8 76.3 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 13.7 16.4 11.9 3.7 83.9 77.5 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 13.7 15.0 12.1 3.5 80.9 75.9 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 14.8 17.5 13.4 3.9 81.0 76.5 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 10.5 12.3 11.9 3.6 88.3 77.9 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 14.2 15.3 12.0 3.6 81.1 76.4 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 12.7 14.6 13.3 3.8 86.2 79.9 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.3 13.8 12.1 3.9 79.6 76.6 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 13.3 17.4 14.0 4.0 86.5 79.9 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 11.3 13.1 10.3 3.6 80.1 77.2 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 13.9 16.9 13.4 3.6 82.5 76.3 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 12.7 16.5 13.4 3.7 85.0 78.9 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 13.2 16.7 14.3 4.1 86.0 79.6 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 14.8 17.0 13.4 3.9 81.1 76.6 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 12.1 14.2 12.1 3.4 81.8 76.4 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 12.5 14.5 11.4 3.7 88.3 80.0 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 13.5 15.7 13.0 3.5 83.2 77.8 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 10.5 13.8 11.3 3.6 84.5 76.2 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 10.3 11.7 11.4 3.7 78.8 76.5 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 13.0 15.9 13.9 3.9 86.4 79.9 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------