***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.0 3.9 10.4 81.5 54.9 42.6 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 7.0 9.6 88.1 57.6 46.0 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.6 5.2 10.0 80.1 52.1 42.9 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.0 11.3 81.8 51.4 42.7 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.2 7.0 10.1 73.7 47.5 40.7 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.9 3.3 9.5 78.3 47.3 43.1 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.2 9.5 89.8 57.7 46.2 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.7 10.0 71.0 44.0 40.3 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.2 10.2 71.6 46.2 40.2 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.5 10.0 69.5 43.9 39.6 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.5 9.5 73.4 45.6 41.2 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.6 9.5 74.9 45.7 41.9 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.9 9.7 76.6 45.5 42.8 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.9 9.9 10.9 74.2 46.7 40.6 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.7 12.4 92.6 58.3 45.6 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.3 9.5 76.7 47.1 42.6 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.7 8.9 88.0 57.2 46.4 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.6 9.8 66.8 43.1 38.0 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.3 9.7 85.9 56.9 45.8 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.8 12.2 68.3 43.5 39.3 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.3 10.0 73.7 50.0 41.0 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.4 6.8 9.2 86.3 56.8 47.2 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.7 9.9 81.2 54.8 44.5 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.9 6.7 9.9 71.7 47.0 39.7 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.6 11.1 77.9 50.5 41.2 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.3 10.5 82.0 52.8 44.7 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 4.5 10.7 80.6 52.2 41.7 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.7 11.0 85.1 53.3 43.4 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 12.5 10.4 67.3 42.3 38.2 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.3 10.0 87.2 57.4 45.2 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------