***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 48.7 93.7 50.3 48.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 35.4 31.9 47.5 95.1 47.3 48.5 24.6 32.3 36.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 45.9 40.5 47.8 92.1 49.0 47.4 33.7 41.2 54.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 51.4 45.8 53.4 96.7 52.2 49.7 34.9 44.7 63.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 49.3 45.8 49.8 92.1 48.1 46.5 39.8 45.9 52.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 39.4 44.6 54.1 102.7 56.1 53.1 27.9 36.5 46.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 37.3 32.9 48.9 98.3 51.4 50.9 25.5 32.0 47.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 63.4 53.4 54.8 91.8 43.3 45.3 45.7 57.5 70.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 41.9 37.4 48.7 88.8 45.0 43.9 27.6 38.1 47.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 52.5 43.7 51.5 88.4 40.6 42.7 40.7 47.5 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 45.6 39.2 47.1 90.8 46.3 45.3 36.8 40.9 52.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 51.4 44.6 49.2 93.2 45.6 46.6 34.6 45.9 59.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 50.4 46.8 52.3 98.1 50.1 49.8 35.1 46.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 62.1 55.1 53.2 88.5 41.4 42.2 46.1 58.9 64.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 55.2 56.5 56.9 102.1 57.0 53.0 26.2 45.0 65.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 46.3 43.0 49.2 95.9 51.2 49.3 33.7 42.9 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 38.4 35.4 47.9 97.8 50.6 50.9 26.9 35.2 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 49.7 42.6 56.9 88.3 42.9 43.1 38.5 46.3 55.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 42.9 36.6 46.9 92.5 44.9 46.8 27.5 39.8 46.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 56.5 51.1 79.3 97.1 53.0 49.9 40.0 50.2 67.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 44.9 42.2 48.1 90.6 50.7 45.9 31.7 42.2 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 41.6 35.2 47.9 93.7 48.9 47.7 29.2 36.5 52.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 41.0 33.5 47.3 90.2 42.8 44.8 26.2 36.1 49.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 54.4 49.8 51.7 88.3 43.7 43.4 42.7 50.6 56.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 41.0 39.8 54.2 95.6 52.5 49.1 29.4 37.8 52.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 44.8 41.0 57.9 104.8 55.6 54.3 29.1 39.7 46.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 43.8 38.9 52.8 95.7 51.2 49.0 27.7 38.8 50.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 44.9 43.5 52.8 98.1 55.3 51.0 30.5 38.7 54.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 79.7 73.1 64.3 91.2 46.3 45.5 60.2 76.8 87.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 38.7 35.6 47.8 95.0 49.7 48.6 24.3 35.7 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------