***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.4 2.9 -0.5 45.8 47.1 2.3 4.3 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.8 2.7 2.7 -0.7 38.6 44.4 2.5 4.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.0 3.2 -0.6 42.7 45.9 3.5 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.4 -0.7 0.3 -0.6 43.1 47.4 -1.1 -0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.8 3.4 1.3 -0.5 43.7 47.0 2.7 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.3 1.4 -0.1 49.7 50.9 2.1 3.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.8 2.6 2.7 -0.7 38.6 45.0 2.0 4.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.5 -1.3 1.3 -0.4 44.5 48.3 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.7 2.2 -0.5 44.5 47.0 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.7 1.8 -0.4 45.0 47.9 2.9 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.1 1.4 -0.5 44.0 47.8 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.2 1.4 -0.4 44.1 48.8 2.6 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.0 1.2 -0.1 48.0 51.0 2.7 3.9 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.6 2.9 -0.4 44.0 47.0 4.4 5.0 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.0 1.0 -0.8 41.5 47.0 2.9 3.2 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.9 1.2 -0.3 45.8 49.5 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.3 2.9 2.8 -0.8 38.5 43.7 2.1 3.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.5 2.0 -0.2 45.7 49.0 1.6 2.6 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.3 2.8 3.0 -0.7 39.2 44.8 2.7 4.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.4 0.8 -0.1 47.9 50.6 -0.7 0.5 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.7 3.8 2.7 -0.6 43.8 46.1 2.9 5.0 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.2 2.9 -0.8 38.6 44.0 2.8 4.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.2 3.3 3.4 -0.6 40.2 45.5 3.1 4.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.9 2.7 -0.4 44.9 47.4 3.8 5.1 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.4 1.5 -0.6 43.5 47.2 2.7 3.8 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.8 1.3 0.0 47.9 52.2 2.2 4.2 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.1 2.5 -0.5 45.4 47.9 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.9 0.7 -0.6 43.5 47.5 3.1 4.3 5.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.0 0.3 1.7 -0.2 47.1 49.7 -0.7 0.6 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.0 2.9 2.7 -0.7 40.0 45.3 2.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------