***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.5 58.9 21.8 26.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 21.4 23.4 26.9 64.9 27.5 30.6 24.7 33.9 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 32.2 29.8 27.5 61.3 22.7 27.8 34.3 43.1 57.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 30.0 27.7 28.9 60.4 20.4 25.8 32.8 42.2 50.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 33.6 27.6 29.1 58.6 17.2 24.5 43.0 48.3 60.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 25.9 23.3 27.6 56.0 15.9 22.1 30.5 37.8 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 21.9 22.4 26.4 64.0 28.1 29.9 26.5 35.8 46.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 42.0 34.9 31.5 60.5 20.0 25.8 51.2 60.0 70.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 25.5 20.1 30.3 59.8 17.9 25.2 25.0 37.5 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 32.5 26.5 31.9 60.3 18.8 25.3 35.1 47.3 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 32.6 27.3 28.0 58.7 17.4 24.7 33.7 42.7 52.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 28.1 23.0 27.6 58.7 18.1 24.7 28.6 41.8 49.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 31.1 27.7 27.5 56.1 16.0 21.8 37.5 45.5 59.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 38.3 35.8 33.2 62.2 21.8 26.8 42.5 51.7 64.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 22.3 22.0 28.3 61.4 25.0 27.8 25.4 43.9 51.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 28.3 25.5 26.8 57.2 17.3 23.5 31.1 40.8 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 23.7 23.9 27.6 70.2 32.0 33.5 24.2 35.2 44.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 30.2 26.5 35.0 61.1 20.7 25.8 31.0 40.9 48.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 23.9 20.8 27.2 64.2 25.8 30.1 23.0 37.1 50.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 35.4 28.5 41.6 63.4 23.2 27.8 36.3 53.9 61.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 30.2 26.3 28.4 59.1 19.4 25.3 31.4 43.8 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 24.5 25.7 29.6 71.3 32.0 34.3 25.7 33.0 44.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 23.9 22.4 28.1 62.5 24.6 28.3 25.4 33.4 44.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 34.8 36.1 31.7 60.8 21.6 26.1 39.0 47.7 56.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 27.3 23.0 28.6 56.2 19.1 23.9 27.3 44.0 58.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 22.9 20.8 27.5 57.4 18.8 23.0 29.1 32.6 53.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 22.1 21.0 27.7 56.9 20.7 24.9 23.8 31.7 60.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 24.1 22.9 28.3 61.6 21.7 26.6 27.8 32.3 45.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 49.6 42.4 37.8 62.0 22.4 26.5 50.9 69.5 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 20.5 19.4 26.7 63.0 25.2 29.6 23.7 36.8 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------