***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 4.8 4.8 4.7 1.8 65.6 65.6 2.2 3.4 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.4 5.0 2.2 68.1 68.9 1.9 3.5 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 5.6 5.7 5.2 1.9 64.7 65.3 3.5 4.7 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.5 74.4 73.9 -0.3 0.6 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.2 3.5 1.8 64.7 66.0 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.0 2.3 1.3 62.9 63.0 2.8 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 4.4 4.0 4.9 2.2 68.8 68.9 1.8 3.0 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 0.6 0.7 3.0 1.6 67.9 65.4 -1.2 -0.5 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 6.3 6.3 4.3 1.7 64.7 65.5 3.8 5.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 5.5 5.3 3.5 1.5 64.0 63.2 3.0 4.8 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.6 3.6 1.6 65.3 64.7 3.7 4.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.1 6.0 3.5 1.6 66.8 66.1 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.0 2.9 1.1 61.1 61.1 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.9 4.9 1.9 67.8 66.0 4.2 5.5 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.7 6.5 4.5 2.9 78.4 76.7 1.9 3.5 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.8 3.1 1.5 65.2 64.8 3.9 5.0 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 4.4 4.0 5.1 2.4 70.9 70.9 1.6 3.0 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 3.4 3.3 3.4 1.5 65.4 64.0 1.8 2.7 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.0 5.2 2.1 67.5 67.8 2.3 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 2.9 2.9 2.0 1.5 68.9 65.8 1.0 1.9 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 5.7 5.7 4.8 1.8 64.9 65.2 3.2 4.9 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.4 5.2 2.3 70.5 70.5 2.6 3.6 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 4.9 4.6 5.3 2.0 66.8 66.2 2.3 3.7 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 6.7 6.9 4.6 1.7 65.9 64.7 3.8 5.7 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 4.4 4.7 3.7 1.9 66.0 67.5 2.0 3.3 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.0 2.5 1.2 64.1 63.0 3.3 4.6 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 5.2 5.9 4.3 1.7 65.0 65.8 2.6 4.0 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.6 7.3 3.6 2.5 74.8 73.6 2.7 4.1 6.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 3.6 3.1 2.9 1.5 68.2 65.1 1.9 2.6 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 4.7 4.1 4.9 2.1 67.1 67.7 1.7 3.3 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------