***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 67.2 43.7 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 0.8 0.9 6.0 53.0 33.9 32.8 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.1 7.2 61.7 41.8 37.5 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.0 7.0 56.7 41.6 36.7 0.7 4.5 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.7 8.1 65.4 45.0 40.0 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.2 2.8 7.6 63.9 43.2 37.5 1.2 3.2 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 0.5 1.0 6.2 56.0 35.4 34.9 0.8 1.5 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.3 6.2 7.8 62.0 42.7 38.5 3.9 7.9 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.4 2.9 8.8 68.8 49.4 40.7 0.9 2.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.4 8.7 67.6 45.0 40.1 1.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.9 3.9 7.3 64.3 42.7 39.2 0.6 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.2 2.1 6.8 61.5 44.1 38.5 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 1.6 3.6 7.5 66.3 46.1 39.4 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.3 2.9 7.8 56.0 34.7 34.2 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.0 0.7 5.0 40.5 37.1 30.2 0.4 2.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.3 6.9 62.0 42.3 37.8 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.4 1.2 5.3 47.5 33.8 31.2 1.2 3.8 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.8 9.5 66.4 43.8 39.6 1.9 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.3 6.2 53.1 34.3 32.2 1.2 3.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.3 9.2 54.7 39.6 35.1 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.5 8.3 68.1 47.1 41.1 2.0 2.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.4 1.2 5.3 44.2 30.6 28.8 1.4 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.3 6.7 54.9 37.0 33.0 1.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.8 8.4 63.4 41.4 38.2 2.5 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.4 8.9 69.4 44.3 41.5 1.2 3.5 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.0 6.5 57.9 43.0 38.7 1.0 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.4 2.5 8.8 70.5 44.1 41.3 0.4 3.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 0.7 0.5 5.9 49.0 38.1 33.1 0.3 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.7 9.7 62.7 41.6 38.2 3.1 6.1 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.0 1.2 6.5 57.1 35.8 34.8 1.2 2.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------