***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 -2.2 -2.8 -2.8 -0.3 47.0 47.6 -4.0 -2.5 -1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 0.3 52.6 53.0 -5.4 -3.5 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 -0.9 -1.3 -2.8 -0.1 49.2 49.8 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 -5.9 -6.3 -5.7 -0.1 48.8 48.9 -8.0 -6.2 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 -3.3 -3.8 -5.3 -0.3 47.3 47.5 -5.1 -3.6 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -6.5 -6.1 -8.0 -1.8 33.6 35.0 -6.1 -4.7 -3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -2.9 -3.2 -2.6 0.2 51.8 52.3 -5.4 -3.4 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -9.0 -8.6 -7.2 -1.7 34.9 36.9 -8.8 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 -2.5 -3.3 -4.5 -0.5 45.8 46.4 -4.4 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -3.1 -4.6 -6.2 -1.2 39.2 40.5 -5.2 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -3.3 -4.8 -6.3 -1.2 39.6 40.4 -5.5 -3.8 -2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -6.7 -6.2 -7.1 -1.9 33.6 35.5 -6.3 -4.8 -3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -3.7 -6.0 -7.1 -1.6 35.4 36.6 -6.2 -4.4 -2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 -2.2 -3.1 -4.2 -0.4 45.4 46.6 -4.3 -2.6 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 -2.8 -3.8 -5.5 -0.6 45.2 45.7 -5.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -3.9 -6.8 -1.3 39.2 39.9 -4.5 -3.1 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 -3.2 -2.9 -2.0 0.8 56.9 56.9 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -5.0 -7.2 -6.6 -1.3 37.5 39.1 -7.7 -5.8 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 -2.8 -2.9 -2.5 0.3 52.7 53.1 -4.9 -3.2 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -11.3 -10.1 -7.4 -0.9 41.1 42.4 -11.0 -9.2 -7.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 -2.7 -3.2 -3.4 -0.2 48.1 48.5 -4.5 -3.0 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 -3.3 -2.9 -1.8 1.0 58.9 58.6 -5.6 -3.8 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 -2.9 -3.1 -2.7 0.2 51.8 52.4 -4.9 -3.2 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -4.2 -4.7 -0.8 42.1 43.5 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 -2.7 -3.4 -4.9 -0.5 45.6 46.1 -4.5 -3.0 -1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -6.1 -5.5 -6.7 -1.8 33.3 35.0 -5.5 -3.9 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 -2.9 -3.8 -3.9 -0.5 45.6 46.3 -5.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 -4.3 -4.9 -5.7 -0.3 47.1 47.2 -6.2 -4.6 -3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -7.4 -6.7 -7.1 -1.4 36.7 38.4 -7.1 -5.5 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 -2.8 -3.2 -2.6 0.1 50.5 51.0 -5.2 -3.3 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------